Firing Dennis Allen Now Won’t Help Raiders

September 14, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders head coach Dennis Allen reacts against the Houston Texans during the second quarter at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

After Sunday’s humiliating 30-14 loss to the Texans (and it wasn’t even really that close), many in the Nation are calling for the head of Dennis Allen. In now his third year as the Raiders head coach, Dennis Allen has led the team to an 8-26 record, including this season’s disappointing 0-2 start. A defensive-minded head coach who was brought in to replace one-and-done offensive guru Hue Jackson (who went 8-8), Allen’s defenses have been awful, and the offense has been even worse.  After excusing much 2012’s and 2013’s failures to the lack of depth, cap troubles and lack of draft picks, GM Reggie McKenzie, to his great credit, managed to navigate the franchise out of these troubles coming into the 2014 season. We finally had a full draft, and a full salary cap to use, which McKenzie used to sign veteran players to short, inexpensive deals. There’s been a lot to look forward to for 2014: a talented and exciting rookie quarterback, an equally talented and exciting rookie linebacker, new faces all over the roster, and the hope that this year would be different. This would be the year we take that step forward on our return to relevance. Then reality hit, and the team has sputtered to an 0-2 start including Sunday’s humiliating effort. It’s certainly understandable that many want to see Allen – and even McKenzie – gone.

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But that won’t solve anything. The Raiders have a long and proud history of firing coaches mid-season. In 2008, after a disappointing 1-3 start, Al Davis fired Lane Kiffin in a memorable and bizarre press conference, replacing him with (violent abuser and) Offensive Line coach Tom Cable, who led the team to a 4-8 record the rest of the year and a 5-11 finish. Cable was promoted from interim to full time head coach after that year, and had the job two more seasons, going 5-11 again in 2009 and then leading the Raiders to an 8-8 record in 2010 before being let go for Hue Jackson. The team did not improve during the 2008 season, nor did it improve in 2009…it took Cable until 2010 to put together a respectable season. In 1989 the Los Angeles Raiders had a better experience: after starting 1-3 including three straight losses to division rivals, Al Davis fired Mike Shanahan (who at that point was 8-12 in his second year as head coach) and replaced him with Art Shell, who led the team to a 7-5 record the rest of the way. Shell would lead the Raiders to a 54-38 record and three playoff appearances in his first stint as head coach, including a 12-4 record in 1990. The coaching change, one could argue, had indeed made the team better. But the league was an entirely different place in 1989, and of course Mike Shanahan would win 2 Super Bowls in Denver before the Raiders ever even returned to the big game.

Mid-season firings rarely make the teams involved any better in recent years. Between 2000 and 2011, mid-season hirings in the NFL resulted in a less than .06 increase in winning percentage: basically the difference between a 4-win season and a 5-win season. In some cases, the teams do improve dramatically when a new coaching staff is brought in the following year: the 2010 Broncos fired Josh McDaniels late in the year with a 3-9 record, went 1-3 under interim coach Eric Studesville, then hired John Elway as President and Mike Smith as head coach and haven’t missed the playoffs since. The Cowboys improved their record from 1-7 to 6-10 when Jason Garrett replaced Wade Phillips mid-season, but have gone 8-8 every year since. Wade Phillips had led them to two playoff appearances in his time as head coach.

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Of course every situation is different and every franchise is different. And that is the strongest argument against firing Dennis Allen before the season comes to an end. The Raiders coaching carousel, poor ownership support and just general mismanagement at the end of Al Davis’ life has made Oakland the absolute worst coaching job in the NFL. Since Jon Gruden was essentially traded to Tampa Bay after the 2001 season (which is where the trouble all started), no head coach save for Tom Cable and now Dennis Allen has lasted longer than two full seasons in Oakland. In fact, since Tom Flores’ departure after the 1987 season, only four coaches have served terms longer than two full seasons: Allen, Cable, Gruden and Shell. The Mark Davis-Reggie McKenzie administration did itself no favors for reputation among NFL coaches by firing Hue Jackson after one season in which he led the team to an 8-8 record.  Firing another coach midway through his third season would not help matters much. Many Raider fans pine for the Jon Gruden days, while Gruden seems perfectly comfortable staying in broadcasting, and would probably have his choice of opportunities in the NFL if he wanted to return to coaching.  The Raiders are not a choice opportunity. Granted, the roster now has more young talent than at any point in recent memory, but a long history of impatience with coaching and poor management has damaged the reputation of this organization irrevocably.  If Allen were fired mid-season, we may be able to convince Tony Sporano – who would likely be the interim HC – to stick around. Sparano led the Miami Dolphins to a 29-35 record and a single playoff appearance before he was canned late in the 2011 season.

Obviously 8-26 is an abysmal record for a head coach, in fact the most abysmal record of any NFL head coach in the past two seasons. If things continue this way, Allen deserves to lose his job after the end of the year, and maybe Tony Sparano will take the job and we’ll go from there. But firing Allen now, or at any point in the season, would disrupt the development of young players like Derek Carr and Khalil Mack, and it would send a message to NFL coaches – including those on our own staff – that Oakland is still a mess, and it’s not job you take if you have options. Let Allen get the remaining 14 games of this season. He can redeem himself or hang himself, but either way we’ll know that we gave him every opportunity before we let him go and start over from zero.