Las Vegas Raiders running back JoshJacobs burst on to the scene in 2019 and had an incredible statistical season. Will he be able to improve on a stellar rookie campaign in 2020?
Josh Jacobs was another revelation for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2019. The rookie immediately became the best player on the Raiders offense and quickly established himself as not just one of the best rookies but one of the best running backs in the league. After sharing the backfield for his college career with the likes of Najee Harris and Bo Scarbrough at Alabama, Jacobs became the feature back and had nearly as many carries in one NFL season as he had in three years with the Crimson Tide.
In just 13 games, Jacobs rushed for 1150 yards at 4.8 yards per carry and seven touchdowns. Jacobs was eighth in the NFL in rushing, tenth in yards per carry but fifth among players with 200+ carries, and fifteenth in rushing touchdowns. Among rookies it was not even a contest as Jacobs out-rushed his closest competition by over 250 yards on the exact same number of carries. In terms of total yards from scrimmage he was narrowly out-gained by Philadelphia Eagles rookie Miles Sanders who established himself as quite the receiving back.
If Jacobs was fully healthy and played all 16 games his numbers would have even been more impressive so assuming he plays a full season in 2020, what sort of numbers will he put up in year two?
The Case for the Over
As noted earlier, Josh Jacobs rushed 242 times for 1150 yards at 4.8 yards per carry over 13 games in 2019. This was enough for sixth most in Raiders history and the highest total since Darren McFadden rushed for 1157 in 2010.
If we extrapolate Jacobs’ rookie numbers to a full season in which he played 16 games, he could have potentially rushed for just over 1,400 yards. If he did that in his first year in the NFL then you could perhaps assume that he could do that or better in his second year after a full offseason of workouts and a greater knowledge of Jon Gruden’s system.
The other factor that could come in to play is the overall improvement in the Raiders offense that we hope to see in 2020. The Raiders were ranked 30th in total plays in 2019 so even in terms of simple opportunities to rack up yards, Jacobs had some of the least in the league. So if he were to reach this milestone the Raiders would have to improve significantly on offense and throw in some takeaways after being one of the worst in in the league in turnover differential in 2019.
Unfortunately the more likely scenario is that he falls just short and here’s why:
The Case for the Under
Assuming that Jacobs plays all 16 games next year, gets a similar amount of carries, and all other things remain equal then he could theoretically reach the 1,500 yard mark. However there are a number of factors working against him achieving that milestone.
The first is history and how things have changed in the NFL in recent years. Since the year 2000 there have been 44 players to rush for 1,500 yards in a season but there have been only 10 since 2010. In fact, Derrick Henry was the first back to do so since Ezekiel Elliot in 2016 so it is becoming increasingly rare. This fits the trend in the NFL as it continues moving towards a passing league with QBs putting up astronomical numbers compared to previous eras.
The next factor is more of a decision by the Raiders to protect one of their most talented players and keep him as explosive as he was his rookie year. Sure the Raiders could give Jacobs 300 carries in 2020 but the more prudent thing to do is to bring in another young back and take some of the weight off his shoulders. Jacobs would still be the lead back but giving him less carries would keep him fresh for what the Raiders will hope is a postseason push and help him avoid another injury like the one that shortened his rookie season.
The final factor is more of a positive and is Jacobs becoming more of a receiving threat out of the backfield. Jacobs had only 20 receptions last season but made some big plays when he was targeted, even as a checkdown for Derek Carr. Rookie running backs often struggle with pass protection and learning route trees so the Raiders would often lean on veteran Jalen Richard in obvious passing situations.
If Jacobs is able to work on that aspect of the game then he will be an even more dangerous weapon for the Raiders due to his versatility. This versatility may hurt his rushing totals but will significantly boost his yards from scrimmage which is the more likely scenario.