With the Las Vegas Raiders offense reloading with a new arsenal and key players returning, here are three bold predictions for the Raiders offense in 2020
The Las Vegas Raiders made reloading the offense a priority in the 2020 offseason as they spent a combination of free agency and draft capital to solidify each position group on that side of the ball. Wide receivers, quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, and offensive lineman were added to either start or provide depth and at least on paper, the growth from 2019 is already impressive.
Despite limited weapons and injuries at key positions, the Raiders offense in 2019 was still in the top half of the NFL in many key statistical categories but fell short in the red zone where it counted most. They had the scheme to move the ball between the 20s by running the ball, controlling the clock, and wearing down defenses but did not have the talent to convert those long drives in to touchdowns.
That should no longer be the case in 2020 as QB Derek Carr now has weapons at every position group that can win those key one on one matchups. Carr also has players who can turn those horizontal routes and designed screens that have become so divisive in Raider Nation into explosive plays.
Everything is set up for Carr or whoever is under center for the Raiders to succeed and for the offense to take the leap in 2020. With that in mind, here are three bold predictions for the Raiders offense in 2020.
Derek Carr will set career highs in TDs and Yards
After 6 seasons as a starter, Derek Carr is already the most prolific passer in the history of the Raiders franchise. Carr surpassed Ken Stabler in 2019 and is nearly 4,000 yards ahead of Snake and his lead should continue to grow if he remains the starter.
He is also just seven touchdowns behind Stabler despite playing nearly 40 games less but all of this can in part be chalked up the wide open era of football Carr has played in.
Given all of the weapons that Carr has at his disposal in 2020, there should be no reason barring injury that he does not set career highs in yards and touchdowns. Carr’s best yardage season was in 2019 when he threw for 4054 yards and his best touchdown mark was in 2015 when he threw 32 in 16 games.
That touchdown mark was set when Carr had the likes of Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, and Seth Roberts lined up alongside him and the 2020 receiver group is arguably just as deep thanks to the new additions. Carr also has a huge upgrade at tight end in Darren Waller who is among the best at his position and two goal line studs in Jason Witten and Foster Moreau.
30 touchdowns is the absolute baseline considering the additional weapons the Raiders added through the draft and a 35-40 touchdown season is a very real possibility.
Similar to the touchdowns, the new weapons on offense will be a boon to Carr in terms of passing yards. We have seen highlight reels of Henry Ruggs’s ability after the catch to turn 5-yard slants in to 50-yard touchdowns and the threat of Josh Jacobs and the underneath passing game should open things up down the field for chunk plays.
In 2019 five quarterbacks threw for around 4,500 yards or more and Derek Carr should be on that list in 2020.
The Raiders will have 5 Pro Bowlers on offense
After the 2019 season the Raiders had two players named to the Pro Bowl roster, offensive lineman Trent Brown and Rodney Hudson. Darren Waller would have been the alternate to Kansas City’s Travis Kelce but thumb surgery ruled him out and he was unable to add Pro Bowler to his growing resume.
As Hudson and Brown are arguably the two best players at their respective positions we can assume that if healthy they will be named to yet another Pro Bowl roster. Our bold prediction is that the Raiders offense will have five players named to the Pro Bowl and that includes Derek Carr, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs.
Derek Carr has already been named to the Pro Bowl three times in his career and if he takes advantage of all his new weapons he should be making his fourth trip after the 2020 season. The departure of Tom Brady to the NFC removes one top QB who could siphon votes from Carr and gives him a great chance of being named to the roster if he is at his best.
Darren Waller already had a Pro Bowl caliber season and it can be argued that he deserved the nod ahead of Baltimore’s Mark Andrews in 2019 to be named to the original roster. If Waller can come close to replicating his 2019 campaign, especially with a few more touchdowns, then he should be a shoo-in for the honor.
Josh Jacobs faces the toughest test as he will have to unseat Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Mark Ingram as one of the AFC’s best backs. Jacobs outrushed Ingram by more than 100 yards in two fewer games but Ingram’s higher touchdown total and role on the AFC’s number one seed likely got him the nod.
Ingram will likely be splitting carries with rookie RB JK Dobbins and other competitors Leonard Fournette and Joe Mixon are on rebuilding teams which clears the path even further for Jacobs.
The last time the Raiders offense had five Pro Bowlers was in 2016 when Carr, Hudson, Amari Cooper, Kelechi Osemele, and Donald Penn were all named to the roster. If all things go to plan then the 2020 version of the offense should be just as good if not better than 2016’s and gets the recognition it deserves in the NFL’s postseason showcase.
The Raiders will have a top-10 offense
As discussed in the opening paragraphs, the 2019 Raiders offense had all the makings of the top offense between the 20s. The Raiders were 11th in the NFL in total yards, 9th in passing yards, 13th in rushing yards, and 6th in yards per play. They could move the ball up and down the field most of the time but two factors held them back from making the leap, penalties and the inability to finish drives with a score.
Those two factors are linked as many promising drives were derailed by penalties and opposing teams’ drives were extended by penalties. The Raiders were 3rd in the league with 128 penalties and only three teams in the top 15 in that statistic made the playoffs in 2019. In terms of scoring, the Raiders offense were 21st in the league in finishing drives with a score at just 32.9% and were 24th in points per game.
So what will help the Raiders turn all of those yards in to points and help them become a top-five offense? The simple answer is that they have more talent and more depth at every skill position on offense.
The lack of talent at WR at times can not be overstated as in some games in 2019 the Raiders, Week 5 against Chicago for example, rolled out a WR group of Hunter Renfrow, Keelan Doss, and Trevor Davis. The drop off from the preseason projected lineup of Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Ryan Grant was dramatic and the fact that the Raiders offense was still competent is a testament to the abilities of Derek Carr and Jon Gruden.
The additions of Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards to the WR will help the Raiders get more chunk plays down the field and the ancillary options Carr will have in the redzone in Lynn Bowden, Jason Witten, and Foster Moreau gives Gruden more toys to scheme around. Even backup QB Marcus Mariota can be part of these goal-line and red zone packages to give the offense an extra wrinkle or two that defenses will have to account for.
With all of these weapons on the roster and the depth added at every position the sky is the limit for the Raiders offense in 2020 and top-10 will be the minimum that Raider Nation should expect. In 2016 the Raiders rode a 7th ranked scoring offense to a 12-4 record and if a playoff trip is on the cards then expect a similar offensive output in 2020.