
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts: How to bet 2020 Week 14
A Deeper Dive
The Colts have won eight games this year, and they’re coming off one win last week against Houston. At no point this season has the Colts failed to win at least two straight games outright, meaning once the Colts win a game, they have won a second game right after that 100% of the time.
Being that their current winning streak is W1, one would think if that trend continues, they’ll win this game as well.
How about splitting the game between the two teams? Very tempting for me, especially as someone who’s just looking to mop up now after I’ve been so terrible picking Raiders spreads this year.
Well, how about this, the Colts have covered three points in eight of their eight overall wins against the Raiders. At a 100% cover rate, they rank second in the category of overall cover percentages against their opponent, thanks to a tiebreaker with Buffalo, (who’s also covered 100% of their wins over Pittsburgh,) that the Raiders lost.
So, as the second-ranked favorite in this category, if we look back on the past four weeks, the second-ranked team in this category has covered in zero of four weeks. This stat gears heavily towards the Raiders covering.
For wins at the Raiders, the Colts covered three points in five of their five wins, so another 100% success rate. That also ranks second among the other favorites this week, and if we look at the past four weeks, the second-ranked favorite in this category is covered in two of four games. Neither one way nor the other is what that stat really tells us.
If we average both rankings the Colts had, they turn out to be the second-most likely favorite this week to cover their spread, and once again if we look back four weeks, the second most likely favorite covered in two of four weeks.
It’s not a ton of helpful data, but what we have that is definitive leans towards the Raiders covering as underdogs. But how does that line up with the Colts covering 100% of their wins over them?