The Las Vegas Raiders were more aggressive on fourth down with Marcus Mariota, what was behind that shift in mentality?
The Las Vegas Raiders were more aggressive on fourth down with Marcus Mariota, ao we have to ask the question, what was behind that shift in mentality?
The Raiders and head coach Jon Gruden have been one of the more conservative teams in the NFL this season thanks to his old-school approach to football. While the rest of the NFL is spreading it out and running the ball less and less, Gruden is holding on to his principles of using the run to set up the pass.
Part of that approach comes with a tendency to not go for it on fourth down, and the numbers back it up for the Raiders. As of Week 15, the Raiders have gone for it on fourth down 17 times, but four of those attempts came on Thursday Night Football against the Chargers. Had the Raiders gone for it just once or twice that night, they would have been in the bottom-10 in the NFL in that category.
Of those 17 attempts, the Raiders have been successful 13 times, which puts them second in the NFL in that category behind the Miami Dolphins who only have six attempts on the year. There is no clear connection between going for it on fourth down and being a good team as we can see from the top-5 in that category this season, which includes the Eagles, Cowboys, Bengals, Colts, and Jaguars.
In fact, one could derive that the more you go for it on fourth down, the worse your team is.
The teams that are successful on fourth down, however, are generally contenders, as eight of the teams in the top-10 are .500 or better. So why have the Raiders not been going for it on fourth down and what changed on Thursday night against the Chargers?
Desperation made the fourth-down decisions easier
The first answer is simple, the Raiders were backed into a corner against the Chargers, Jon Gruden finally saw his playoff chances and his season slipping away, and needed to do something to try and change that. Las Vegas was getting no traction with their defense and desperately needed to win the game, so Gruden threw out his conservative leanings, until overtime at least, and decided to start rolling the dice.
Raider Nation might have been wondering where that tendency was all season, as there were several opportunities this season where Gruden opted for a field goal when chasing a lead, rather than going for it. The games against the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers stand out, but there were surely other chances that Gruden turned down.
What is particularly infuriating about Gruden’s insistence on being conservative is that the Raiders’ offense has been the strength of the team the entire season, and he consistently chose to rely on a terrible defense. The Raiders are still top-3 in the NFL in third-down percentage despite some recent struggles and have had great success on fourth down albeit in a much smaller sample size.
Gruden is an offensive-minded coach and has done a great job coaching up a great offense, outside of the red zone at least, but when push came to shove, he chose to pass the buck to his defense. Against the Chargers, however, aside from the disparate nature of the game, he had another weapon at his disposal that he did not have all season.
Marcus Mariota added a new dimension to the offense
The weapon Jon Gruden had on Thursday night that he didn’t have before Week 15 was a quarterback in Marcus Mariota who is absolutely lethal with his legs. Derek Carr is relatively athletic for a quarterback and can make plays with his legs, but he has never done that consistently, and probably never will.
With Mariota in the game, Gruden was able to open the playbook a little thanks to his skill set. Mariota ran the ball nine times for 88 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, and they seemed completely unprepared for that wrinkle in the game. This is understandable considering they spent all week preparing for Carr, and instead got Mariota for the majority of the game.
Two of Mariota’s nine rushes came on fourth down and both went for first downs. The first was a run around left end in a play that Carr just can’t physically make, as he beat a defensive back to the corner. The second run was a quarterback sneak up the middle that Carr has executed plenty of times, so we can throw that one out, but the other rushes were plays only a quarterback as athletic as Mariota could make.
Having this dual-threat ability at the quarterback position opens things up for Gruden because it gives him more options on any down, including fourth down. Mariota’s ability to not just extend plays, but break off big runs with his legs makes him harder to defend in short-yardage situations because he is big and fast enough to beat defenders or power through them for crucial yards.
We will have to see if this was just a flash in the pan for Gruden if Mariota starts against the Dolphins, but he could be licking his chops at getting ten days to prepare for a tough Miami defense with his dual-threat quarterback. If Carr is under center and is not 100%, then we likely won’t see much aggression from Gruden and the Raiders, but if they choose to protect him and start Mariota, we can only hope that Gruden will keep rolling the dice.