The Las Vegas Raiders continue to struggle to win games with Derek Carr at quarterback, and likely won’t take a step forward until he is gone.
Before you sound off in the comments purely based on the headline let me note one thing. I have supported Derek Carr since he was given the starting job over Matt Schaub his rookie year in 2014. I have given him the benefit of the doubt for many years because of many reasons that I will outline further in the article and have understood the era of Raiders football that we have transitioned to since he took over.
I also, however, have been able to criticize and critique him when it was warranted. Over the past few years on my brother and I’s podcast the Raider Take Podcast, we have given him his props when due and been critical of him when it was deserved as well.
It seems as if amongst Raider Nation that is not a popular stance, nor are you allowed to do that. It seems as if you’re only allowed to be on one extreme side or another. Never in my lifetime of following this team and recently being deep within the social media presence, have I ever encountered a player who was so polarizing, captivating, and divisive within his own fanbase.
The most interesting part of this whole situation is that everyone is validated in their opinions no matter which side of the hostile line you fall on. If you think that he can be the answer and that factors outside his play and control on the field are the reasons for the team’s overall struggle, there is plenty of evidence to back that up.
If you believe that he has been given too much time to prove himself and that we’ve seen the extent of what his ability can be, you’d be validated with plenty of evidence as well.
No matter what your opinion though there is no denying that the Raiders have found themselves in this weird good sometimes but not great, football purgatory that leaves fans to wonder if the team will ever get over that hump, or just revert back to the many years of bottom-dwelling we’ve been accustomed to. I do believe that this team with this head coach and coaching staff can in fact take the next step to compete at a higher level.
Unfortunately, I also believe that that won’t happen until they move on from Derek Carr, and begin a new chapter with a new QB1.
Raiders won’t take the next step until they move on from Derek Carr
The Good
Remember that bottom-dwelling we discussed earlier? Ever since Derek Carr has been the Raiders starting quarterback, things have undoubtedly gotten better. To date, he only has two fewer wins in nine years (62) than the franchise has had in the last twelve years (64), one of which included an 11-5 team that made it to the Super Bowl in 2002.
The record books reflect a level of top-tier play as well. Some may say it’s a different time with the NFL being so pass-heavy nowadays, but nonetheless, Carr leads the Raiders franchise in passing yards, touchdowns, completion percentage with a minimum of 50 attempts, and game-winning drives.
He has etched his name in with top talent when it comes to NFL records also. He is currently 4th all-time in passing yards through a quarterback’s first nine seasons and only 628 yards away from surpassing Dan Marino as third on that list. He is also tied for 2nd with Payton Manning for most comeback wins in a season, and he is 1st in the NFL for the best overtime record for a quarterback with 10 or more games played at 8-2.
Did I forget to mention the absolutely terrible defenses he’s been stuck with throughout his nine years with the team? No quarterback in NFL history has had a defense average more PPG since the 1970 merger than the 26.3 the Raiders have given up during the Derek Carr era. He has also never had a defense that ranked better than 20th overall.
Let’s toss out all the stats, records, and numbers that point to why so many fans believe Derek Carr can be “him”. The Raiders’ passing game and offense has just looked better over the years compared to the abysmal play we saw from the likes of Jason Campbell, Jamarcus Russell, Josh McCown, and Kerry Collins just to name a few.
We saw a team that went 3-13 his rookie year with a 10-game losing streak, turn around two years later, and go 12-4 which gave them their first playoff berth since 2002. Unfortunately for the Raiders, Derek Carr broke his leg on Christmas Eve in a game against the Colts that ended his season.
No matter how you shake it, Derek Carr has done some amazing things for this franchise over the nine years he’s been here. He has not only played at a high level at times but he’s been unconditionally loyal to a franchise he grew up watching.
On top of all of that, he’s done it with legitimately the worst supporting cast on defense a quarterback has ever been tasked with dealing with. But with every good does come some bad along the way. Unfortunately, there has definitely been some bad.
Raiders won’t take the next step until they move on from Derek Carr
The Bad
More often than not there is a catch-22 to most good things, especially when it comes to Raiders success. Most notable is that since they’ve been playing better, the letdown hurts even worse the more it happens, and boy has it happened.
It seems as if this year’s woes of blowing three 17-point leads when the franchise has only done that five total times prior, is icing on the heartbreak cake.
I think it is fair to note that Derek Carr hasn’t been the same since he broke his leg, and that’s completely understandable. But one of the biggest things that opposing teams say about him and that has been a caveat to his game is that he gets timid and bothered in the pocket if you can hit him a couple times.
Some go as far as to say he’s soft. Few quarterbacks don’t think twice about getting hit by the big men on the defensive line, but nonetheless, opposing teams feel like they have a weakness they can exploit.
Remember when I mentioned both sides had stats to back up their argument? Well, the ones on the prosecution’s side are just as bad as the good ones are good. The most frustrating and damning evidence against him: is his red zone woes.
Over the last few years, it always seemed like the Raiders could do whatever they wanted between the 20-yard lines. The real struggles start when consistency was needed the most: in the red zone. No matter whether they were 19 yards away or 1 yard away, you always had somewhat of an uneasy feeling of “how are we going to screw this one up this time”.
Thursday Night against the Rams marked the 14th time that Derek Carr has thrown an interception in the red zone. That puts him tied with three other quarterbacks for the most red zone interceptions in NFL history: Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Phillip Rivers. Whether it’s turning the ball over or stalling out in the red zone, there’s no denying Derek Carr has had his struggles.
In his nine-year career thus far, he has only ranked in the top 15 in red zone passer rating two times and has ranked outside the top 20 five times including this season where he ranks 32nd of 33 qualifiers with a 71.5 passer rating. He is also dead last this year in the NFL of all starting quarterbacks in red zone completion percentage at 40.4% and the only starting quarterback who has yet to be sacked inside the red zone so far this season.
Once again though, take away all the depressing stats, and let’s just use the eyeball test. Over and over again we’ve seen him not scramble when he should have, throw the ball away on third down, miss a guy downfield when he’s been accurate all game, and just downright look like he’s giving up on the play because the first read wasn’t there and was fine settling for the points.
There is a reason why our kicker has continually ranked as one of the top scorers on the team year after year. There is a reason why even though the Raiders are on their fourth coach in the nine seasons that Carr has started, they still continue to struggle in the red zone.
We have gotten to a point where the weapons have changed, the scheme has changed, and the coaching has changed, yet one constant remains the same. The 40-million-dollar question is: Will they address it sooner than later?
Raiders won’t take the next step until they move on from Derek Carr
The Conclusion
Derek Carr has been a very good quarterback during his time here with the Raiders. He has set many records, taken this franchise out of the depths of rock bottom, and brought us into a place where not only does Raider Nation have hope every year, but genuinely believes that we have a chance to win every Sunday.
Maybe part of the allure of Derek Carr is that he’s the best quarterback we’ve had since Rich Gannon took the Raiders to the Super Bowl in 2002. Maybe the hard part of letting go is being afraid to drop back into the depths of the NFL trash again.
Nobody wants to give up a good thing if it means taking a step backward.
But that is exactly what Derek Carr represents right now. He’s the girlfriend or boyfriend that you know there isn’t anything inherently wrong with, but you don’t see things moving past where they are currently. They’ve always been loyal; they’ve always done you right. But they aren’t the one.
There’s a certain feeling in your gut that tells you if you’re going to move forward in your life, things have to change or they’re going to stay the same forever.
I don’t necessarily think he won’t be the Raiders quarterback next season. For all of the Carr stans out there that make the point “who’s going to come in and replace him?”, that’s completely valid. The quarterback of the future will undoubtedly need to be a rookie drafted and as it sits, they are not necessarily in a position to get one of the top guys.
They may move on from him this offseason, but we may still see him as the Raiders’ signal caller for the remainder of his contract. In my opinion though, if the Raiders want to take the next step and compete in the playoffs if they want to bring a 4th Super Bowl back to a once respected franchise, they are going to need to move on from the ever-polarizing Derek Dallas Carr.