The Las Vegas Raiders have been extremely bad at protecting seemingly insurmountable leads this season, and it has cost them dearly.
It’s rare for a football team to lose a game when leading by double digits at halftime. It’s even more rare for this to happen again. For the Las Vegas Raiders, they are making it seem like it is very easy to do.
The 2022 Raiders have accomplished this four times in the first thirteen games of the Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler era. For me, this has been the biggest issue facing the team this season.
Just how rare is it to lose this way? According to CBS Sports, every other NFL team since 2000 has won 89.9% of their games after 10+ point halftime leads. Losing in this fashion four times in a season makes the 2022 Raiders the first team since at least 1930 to accomplish that.
Here are the four dreadful Raiders losses in case you forgot:
- Raiders at home led Arizona 20-0 at halftime
- Raiders led 20-7 late in the 2nd quarter and then 20-10 at halftime vs Chiefs
- Repeated that against Jacksonville
- At the Rams last week, they led 13-3 at halftime and then 16-3 in the late 4th quarter
If the Raiders only held onto their big leads, they would be 9-4 with the 2nd best record in the AFC. Even if the Raiders won just 3 of those 4 games, they would be 8-5 and the 4th seed in the playoffs right now. Instead, they sit 5-8 with slim playoff chances. The frustrating part is Arizona, Jacksonville and the Rams are all losing teams who won’t be in the playoffs.
Las Vegas Raiders and the art of blowing double-digit leads
How does this happen?
So how does this happen? Who is to blame for this historic string of 2nd half collapses? It really takes failure in several aspects of the game, while the opponent slowly chips away – it’s a perfect storm. Let’s talk about what the Raiders did in the 2nd half during the four games.
To blow a double-digit lead, you must stop moving the ball on offense. In the 2nd half of those four games, 15 of the 19 (79%) Raiders drives ended in a punt or turnover. They averaged roughly 5 plays per drive – so either getting a quick first down and then punting or getting a first down followed by a quick turnover.
While their opponents in those four games averaged approximately 9 plays per drive – and scoring – so they’re getting fast first downs and moving the ball into the red zone.
The 2022 Raiders have the 2nd least amount of turnovers in the NFL right now. However, when they do turn the ball over, it seems to happen when they’re blowing a double-digit lead. Two of the Raiders three lost fumbles this entire season occurred on the final play in two of those four 2nd half collapses.
Additionally, 23% of all Raiders turnovers this season occurred in the 2nd half of those four games.
The offensive play call also becomes very conservative about one or two quarters too soon. Many teams will continue their first half dominance into the third quarter and then tighten up in the fourth quarter to protect the football and run the clock down. It makes you wonder conversations occurred at halftime.
Las Vegas Raiders and the art of blowing double-digit leads
The Rams debacle
The collapse to the Rams was the best example of this. After Josh Jacobs injured his hand very early in the 3rd quarter, the Raiders continued running the ball and only called 6 passing plays the entire 2nd half. 75% of the Raiders 2nd half possessions in Los Angeles were three and outs.
This isn’t only a reflection of the play call though. Player execution is also an issue. They just seem uninterested, which reflects in their performance, and then they quickly become frustrated which also reflects in their performance. There are no stats necessary to support this. It’s quite visible to see just watching the game that the players are underperforming drastically compared to the first half. Again, it makes you wonder what happened in the locker room for everyone to seem so bored.
But it wasn’t just the offense in these games, the defense fell apart too. Using the Rams game as an example again, putting minimal pressure on their new QB Baker Mayfield for most of the 4th quarter and easing up the secondary, allowed for a 75-yard TD drive followed by a 98-yard TD drive to end the game.
On the play that resulted in the game-winning touchdown, Baker Mayfield told reporters after the game he couldn’t believe the Raiders lined up in press man when leading by 6 points in the red zone. Former NFL defensive genius Wade Phillips echoed the same sentiment. He tweeted, “Really unbelievable that the Raiders would be in press man with no deep help and with 6-point lead!”.
Las Vegas Raiders and the art of blowing double-digit leads
So what gives?
To fall apart in the 2nd half, you must also commit more penalties, specifically in crucial situations. In those four games, the Raiders committed over twice the amount of penalties in the 2nd half (25) compared to the 1st half (12). That’s almost 70% of the penalties happening after they established a double-digit lead.
Again, player execution just becomes lazy and mindless.
But it’s also the timing of some of these 2nd half penalties, occurring at a crucial part of the field on a third down giving the opponent a brand-new set of downs.
With about 20 coaches and 53 players, it takes influence from a lot of people to fall apart in the final 30 minutes of a game. When that many people fail at the same time, it’s leadership that is most responsible. The head coach, the coordinators, and the player captains need to right the ship before it hits the iceberg.
The Raiders have done something no NFL team has ever done – they have perfected how to consistently lose games after having double-digit halftime leads.
Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels has been too conservative this year
Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels is coaching like he’s still in New England and that has been a major problem this year.
It’s frustrating as a Raiders fan, but it’s also fascinating as a football fan, because it’s so hard to lose like that. In 2023, it is crucial that they perfect how to close out games and only then will they become a playoff team again.