The Las Vegas Raiders will be hoping to get some trade compensation for Derek Carr, but he could just wait and get released, leaving them getting nothing in return.
3…2…1…GO! Tis the season for Derek Carr news and speculation and until we find within 5 1/2 weeks what the final outcome will be, speculation is all we can provide. The fact that he has a no-trade clause in his contract and can ultimately choose where he wants to go in relation to viable suitors is what throws the biggest wild card question mark for the Raiders in this whole ordeal.
Nothing has captivated Raider Nation and the debate about Derek Carr more than the Raiders’ final decision to bench him with two games remaining in the season. With his newly signed extension, Carr was essentially on a one-year prove-it deal that ultimately resulted in him not doing enough to Josh McDaniels and company to warrant them sticking with him for the remainder of his deal.
That deal jumped exponentially to 43 million a year and as of February 15th, his 33 million base salary and 7.5 million of his 2024 salary were fully guaranteed.
The other caveat to the whole situation is that if he was to get injured, that same amount of money would immediately be guaranteed as well, hence the benching. Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels essentially decided to protect their investment and not risk him getting hurt, ultimately deciding for them whether they wanted to pay him or not.
So now the front office is in a peculiar situation when it comes to Derek Carr’s future. They have the ability to test the market and see what they can get in return for him via trade, but because of that clause, he has to agree to the deal. That gives him all the power in the world to pick his own team or force them to cut him before the February 15th deadline so that he can test free agency on his own.
This leads us to the 43 million dollar question: Will Derek Carr accept a trade suitor of his choice out of what should be a very heated market for him, or will he stand his ground and force the Raiders to cut him so he can see what striking his own deal has to offer?
Let’s dive in.
Raiders Trade or Shade: Will Derek Carr pick a team or force free agency
Why he takes a trade offer
As previously mentioned, there is expected to be quite a robust market for Derek Carr. There are a lot of quarterback-needy teams and with a draft class that really only has 3 quarterbacks that can start right away, a veteran guy who has proved he’s got all the ability in the world would be a hot commodity. The contract in which he carries will undoubtedly play a part in what compensation they get back though.
Carr signed a 3-year, 121.5 million dollar extension with 65 million guaranteed this offseason after only having one more year on his previous contract. That put him at an average of 40.5 million a year with most of it coming in the last two years. The Raiders included an out after one year though, where they could get out after the first year and have next to no dead cap from the deal.
His base salary goes from 32.9 million in 2023 to 41.9 million in 2024 and then 41.2 million in 2025, the final year of the contract. In the grand scheme of things, 40 million dollars for a starting caliber quarterback won’t even be in the top 10 of highest-paid contracts in 3 years. The way the contract is constructed too, the total dead cap hit for a team is going to essentially be his base salary alone.
Derek’s brother David Carr, who currently is an analyst for NFL Network, has somewhat been his proxy of talking about the situation. He has stated that Derek does still want to play football, that he will be looking for a team that has a structured, good relationship between owner and head coach, and that has a good defense in place so that he has the opportunity to compete right away.
Basically taking a shot at all the things he was deprived of with the Raiders.
The situation is somewhat weird when you think about whether he’d take a trade or not. In theory, any team that is willing to trade for him would be willing to offer him a deal on the open market. For him it makes sense to take a trade, being that he can pick wherever he wants to go and more than likely won’t generate as good of a contract as he already has.
With no more guaranteed money left on his deal, it would make sense that he’d want to start over. But any team that acquires him can always restructure it in a way that would benefit both sides after the deal was done, giving him the ability to keep his 40+ million a year base salary and get some extra security along the way.
Raiders Trade or Shade: Will Derek Carr pick a team or force free agency
Why he forces Raiders to release
It seems like there might be more incentive for him to make the Raiders release him than it is for him to accept a trade. I feel like the reasons behind accepting a trade have higher value, but the higher number of reasons seem to lean towards the release.
The other side of the coin in regards to having a robust trade market for him is that there will undoubtedly be a robust market in free agency as well. Carr has expressed that he still wants to play and wants to compete for a championship, so he is going to go somewhere else eventually. How he actually gets there is what we are all waiting for.
If he forces his release he’ll be free to explore and negotiate a deal with whatever terms he so chooses. He’s not subjected to the stipulations he currently falls under. He also will get interest from any team that was willing to trade for him, essentially still getting his choice of where he can play and where he wants to go. The gamble is whether he thinks he can get just as good, if not better, of a contract than he sits on currently.
He also can give the Raiders the metaphorical middle finger by forcing them to cut him as well. It’s been well documented that he and many others were salty at the way the Raiders handled the situation. They essentially said we don’t want you anymore, but also give us permission to trade you to someone else and receive benefits for doing so. He could essentially say you cut ties with me, I’m going to cut ties with you and I’m not doing you any favors in the process.
As we’ve mentioned though, accepting a trade has its benefits on his side as well. The real mystery is whether he views them as enough to not do his own thing and let the Raiders benefit in the process.
Raiders Trade or Shade: Will Derek Carr pick a team or force free agency
Final Verdict
In my opinion, I think he ultimately accepts a trade deal for whichever team has the best situation for him. We still need to see how that market pans out and who actually puts in an offer, but what he would be giving up contract-wise and the risk he would take hoping to get something better just doesn’t seem worth it.
Especially if you’re talking about going to the same team you could be traded to, just gambling with the money you get back in return instead of guaranteeing what you’ve locked into already.
With how much he has always loved the Raiders and everything he’s given to this organization, I’d be hard-pressed to think he would go full-scorched earth and make them cut him out of pure spite. Some may say getting shafted the way he did by a team he loved so much could easily drive him to do such a thing, but that just doesn’t seem like him or something that he would do no matter how much bad blood there was.
Where he goes could be debated till the end of time until we actually figure out the suitors and who he seems to favor the most. The icing on the cake for this whole debacle is if he ended up going to the Buccaneers via trade or free agency.
Potential package for the Las Vegas Raiders to land Jalen Ramsey
The Raiders have a big offseason ahead of them and going after some potential players on the trade market might be in the cards for filling some needy holes
Tom Brady is going to be a free agent this year and a lot of people speculate Las Vegas could be a landing spot for him. With the Super Bowl set to be played in Las Vegas for the 2023 NFL season, wouldn’t it be fitting if a Derek Carr-led Tampa Bay team played a Tom Brady-led Raiders team, faced off for all the marbles in a stadium Carr called home since their inception? Not even Vince McMahon could write a better script.
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