Predicting when the Las Vegas Raiders will fire Josh McDaniels

Living on the East Coast and refusing to pay the price for Sunday Ticket, I don’t get to see the Las Vegas Raiders play that often. I do, however, pay the modest price for the basic NFL Plus package on my phone which means I have access to the live audio of the Raiders’ games.

Most Sundays, I sit back and listen to Jason Horowitz and Lincoln Kennedy give their biased takes on the games. Their job is to make the Raiders sound as if they are a functioning football team. Through the first two weeks of the season, I bought it.

After seeing the actual product on the field for the first time since the pre-season, I am utterly disgusted by what I saw. Pre-season offered glimpses of the future. Young players playing to make the team against other green professional players.

There was a real sense that the Raiders were moving in the right direction. Aidan O’Connell bolstered many of those dreams of a successful season with their outstanding play.

However, going into Week 4, it is clear Josh McDaniels is not the answer as head coach.

Raiders beat a very bad Broncos team in Week 1

Week one set the tone for the season even if Raiders fans didn’t realize it. The Raiders squeaked out a win by a single point against the Denver Broncos. A point that was essentially a missed extra point in the first quarter. The excitement amongst Raider Nation was palpable after defeating the Broncos for the seventh straight time.

Little did Raider Nation know, this was an embarrassing victory. Scoring 17 points against the Broncos would have been a warning if only we could see how bad Denver’s defense truly is. The Washington Commanders put 35 points up against them in week two. Then, this week, the Miami Dolphins scored an absurd 70 points.

A 17-16 victory no longer looks so great for the Raiders.

Hiring Josh McDaniels was a mistake from day one; however, I erred on the side of optimism. Let’s give this a try and see where he takes the team. Last season, the new regime traded for Davantae Adams (awesome).

Then the Raiders proceeded to blow three 17-point leads in one season. McDaniels dealt with injuries to two of the best offensive weapons. Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller each missed roughly half of the season.

Raiders have been terrible under McDaniels

The arguments that McDaniels took possession of a team that over-achieved the year before seemed convincing. The 2021 Raiders weren’t really a playoff team. They just got lucky to sneak in only to get beat in the Wild Card Round. He really needed his players to make the offense turn into the Las Vegas version of the Patriots.

Well, he got what he asked for. Derek Carr and Darren Waller are gone. Hunter Renfrow has seemingly been removed from the game plan. Jimmy Garoppolo is in at quarterback. Jacobi Meyers signed a deal directly from New England. There are, by my count, five offensive players left from the 2021 Las Vegas Raiders team that went 10-7 and made the playoffs despite multiple off-field distractions.

This is Josh McDaniels’ version of the Raiders.

With all of the changes, the Raiders are playing like an expansion team. The “offensive genius” has the Raiders 30th in points scored, 24th in yards, and 31st in offensive plays run. The only statistic that the Raiders are close to the league lead in is turnovers since Garoppolo has thrown six interceptions in the first three games. Since the offense can’t maintain a drive, that means 25% of the drives end with a turnover. The Raiders actually lead the league in that stat.

So when will the Raiders fire McDaniels?

When will this ill-fated experiment end? Unfortunately, it won’t end until November 27th. That is a guess based on the Raiders bye week which isn’t until week 13. After playing Kansas City on Thanksgiving weekend, I can’t imagine Josh McDaniel will keep his job. The Raiders will likely be 3-9 at that point given how the team is playing currently.

I don’t want to be negative. I just have nothing left to hope for with this current team. The offensive line is a disgrace. Josh Jacobs sitting out of the entire offseason is part of his early struggle, but what is supposed to do when he is getting hit in the backfield nearly every play? Our quarterback can’t throw the ball downfield. It is sad because Adams and Meyers are dragging the team down the field by themselves.

The defense offers one tiny glimmer of hope. They aren’t a good unit, but they aren’t as bad as expected. Divine Deablo, Maxx Crosby, and Robert Spillane look solid. The failure to create a turnover in three games is concerning especially given that Garoppolo throws to the other team more times than he has targeted any tight end.

So, circle the date on the calendar. November 27th is the date. Raider Nation can sit back and know yet another failed coach has come and gone as we recover from our turkey hangover. The discussion of the next coach can begin. I for one would welcome someone who embraces Raider culture and builds a team that actually resembles the renegades of the National Football League.