Two teams that fell short of expectations in the 2022 season will face off in Week 1 in 2023, as the Denver Broncos host the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders have undergone a change at quarterback, releasing Derek Carr this offseason and signing for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to reunite with Josh McDaniels.
In Denver, Nathaniel Hackett is out and Sean Payton is in at head coach. The team is hoping Payton can bring some stability to a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since winning Super Bowl 50.
Russell Wilson had an awful 2022 season, but can he turn things around in 2023 with a new offense in place? That’s what Denver is hoping for, and oddsmakers have the Broncos favored in this game at home.
Las Vegas finished in third in the AFC West last season, and it needs to take a massive step forward to get back to the playoffs in what has become a loaded conference.
BetSided’s NFL Analyst Iain MacMillan gave out his pick for this game – and the other 15 matchups in Week 1 – to help you find the best bet.
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Let’s break down the odds for this game and I’ll share how I am betting on it:
Raiders vs. Broncos odds, spread and total
Raiders vs. Broncos betting trends
- The Raiders went 8-9 against the spread last season
- The Broncos went 7-10 against the spread last season.
- The Broncos were 1-4 ATS as home favorites last season.
- The Raiders were 3-2 ATS as road underdogs last season.
- The UNDER was 11-6 in the Broncos’ 17 games in 2022.
- The OVER was 8-8-1 in the Raiders’ 17 games in 2022.
Raiders vs. Broncos injury reports
Las Vegas Raiders injury report
- Brandon Facyson (questionable, leg)
Denver Broncos injury report
- Baron Browning (PUP, knee)
- Jerry Jeudy (questionable, hamstring)
- Tim Patrick (IR, Achilles)
Notes: Jeudy wasn’t placed on IR to open the season, but it’s likely going to be tough for him to return from his hamstring injury in Week 1.
Raiders vs. Broncos how to watch
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 10
- Game Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Las Vegas Raiders Record: 0-0
- Denver Broncos Record: 0-0
Raiders vs. Broncos key players to watch
Las Vegas Raiders
Jimmy Garoppolo: This is Jimmy G’s first start with the Raiders, and he has a chance – in a familiar system with Josh McDaniels – to revitalize his career. Garoppolo has an elite WR1 in Davante Adams, but can he beat a Denver defense that was solid in 2022?
Maxx Crosby: A Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Crosby has 25 solo tackles, 11 assists and 11.5 sacks in eight games against the Broncos in his career. Last season, he recorded two sacks in each of his matchups with Denver.
Russell Wilson: This is Russell Wilson’s chance to prove that it was Nathaniel Hackett – and not him – that was the problem in 2022. If Wilson gets out to a slow start, one has to think Denver considers benching him in 2023.
Javonte Williams: After tearing his ACL in 2022, Williams is expected to be good to go for Week 1. With Tim Patrick on IR and Jeudy potentially out for this game, Denver may lean on the running back – which means Williams and Samaje Perine will get plenty of work in Week 1.
Raiders vs. Broncos prediction and pick
This may sound crazy, but Denver hasn’t beaten the Raiders since the 2019 season, losing six straight games in this divisional rivalry.
The Broncos’ offense was awful in 2022, scoring the fewest points in the NFL, and the team doesn’t have a key weapon in Tim Patrick in 2023. There’s also a good chance that Jeudy (hamstring) misses this game.
Does that give the Raiders the edge on the road? Las Vegas wasn’t awful (3-2 ATS) as a road underdog in the 2022 season, and Josh Jacobs torched the Broncos in their meetings.
I do believe in the Denver defense, but I’m not sure that this team is able to handle the Raiders to the point where it should be favored by more than a field goal.
Had Payton not been named the head coach, would the Broncos be favored by this much? I don’t think so. Payton is certainly an upgrade, but can we trust Wilson after the worst season of his career.
I’m going to wait and see on Russ, and I think Garoppolo’s ability to manage games is an upgrade for Las Vegas after Carr threw a ton of picks in 2022. The Raiders can cover this number in Week 1.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.