Back To The Bay: Rookies=Mistakes
After Derek Carr’s impressive start to the final preseason game against the Seahawks, Raider Nation was full of hope. However, after the performance by the Raiders in New Jersey against the Jets, Raider Nation has become fragmented and picking sides as to whom is to blame. This is a trend I have noticed building for some time, and what is a real issue is the development of myths regarding what happened during a game. This is in part due to agendas, but also because most fans do not actually watch coaches’ tape. Simply put, fans miss the vast majority of what is actually happening during a play when watching the broadcast. What I noticed watching the game tape was simple. A rookie quarterback did not have his best game. It is that basic and because he missed some opportunities and played overly cautious, he got out of rhythm, the play calling compensated/tightened up, and it all blew up in their faces in the second half.
The Defense
Raiders’ fans are really entertaining at times. So many of them are irate because the Raiders gave up “x” number of rushing yards or “x” number of passing yards. Do you want to know what head coach Dennis Allen thinks of giving up yards? In 2009 when the Saints won the Super Bowl under then defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and then defensive backs coach Dennis Allen, the Saints had an accumulated Pro Football Focus score of -94.9 and the run score specifically was a -93.9. The point is, this defense wants to limit big pass plays and uses calculated risk to create impact plays and more specifically, turnovers. That season the Saints lead the league in turnovers and recorded 40 sacks. That is not to say the Raiders are there yet, but that is the philosophy.
The Raiders on Sunday versus the Jets produced 10 quarterback hurries. The highly praised Jets pass rush produced 14. The Raiders tied the Jets in sacks with two. The big difference that kept the Raiders in the game? They forced two turnovers and the Jets forced none. Let us also not forget the Raiders only had four penalties.
The fact that the Raiders went on the road to the East Coast for their first game, forced two turnovers, only had four penalties, and only gave up 19 points is a very good sign. The idea that because the Jets had the ball more and moved the ball better than the Raiders, which means in some world in an alternated dimension they “deserved” to put up more points is a joke. How many games in the past have we seen the Raiders move the ball great between the 20s, dominate possession, dominate yards, but lose because of yards, turnovers, and an inability to finish? That was the issue for the Raider’s for years, but in this game the defense made plays when it had its back to the wall. In the end, the Raiders lost because of a couple missed opportunities.
One person that has been a target for mass amounts of criticism and blame from Raider Nation is Miles Burris. I cannot emphasize enough that the issue with Burris is not talent it is usage. The issue the Raiders have is that they have built their defense to cater to a middle linebacker that is a converted weakside linebacker. He is a laterally quick run and hit linebacker whereas Miles Burris is a downhill attacker that stuffs the run at the line. Asking Burris to be Roach is impossible and making the claim that Roach is an ideal middle linebacker is a joke. Roach has significant issues taking on blockers, shedding blocks, and blowing up a hole, but Burris can do all of those things well. Burris gets in trouble when he has to move laterally and then attack which is what Roach is best at.
One thing I found curious with the Raiders was the consistent off coverage they played. Last season Geno Smith burned Tarver with his legs as Tarver brought a heavy consistent blitz, but in this game he rarely blitzed and when he did it was usually a five man rush, and the Jets almost exclusively operated out of max protection. This negated much of the Raider’s pass rush and gave Geno enough time to wait for a receiver to open up. However, the two sacks the Raiders produced were from complex looks and blitzes that confused the offensive line. This remains a good sign for the Raiders. The biggest issue I saw, the Raiders had Geno dead to rights multiple times and did not finish.
Overall in regards to the defense, this is the sort of defense that Dennis Allen has always known. He never oversaw a lock down defense. They use many of the coverage schemes and subsets the Seahawks use, but they have a philosophy of looking for the big play. That is why they drafted DJ Hayden and that is exactly what they expect in the long term from Khalil Mack. The mental mistakes are still too frequent and there is the occasional blown coverage, but those should decrease in time and with chemistry.
The Offense
As far as I am concerned, the loss for the Raiders is due primarily to the lack off offense, which is a bizarre story in itself. Early on the offense was moving the ball pretty decently both on the ground and through the air. The Raiders did the right thing in choosing to challenge the Jets laterally and attack the cornerbacks that way.
After the first touchdown the Raiders were able to move the ball in spurts, but their downfall came in the unwillingness to test the Jets cornerbacks deep. Raider fans have been quick to blame offensive coordinator Greg Olson for that, but the tape tells a different story. In fact, it proves one thing above all else, Derek Carr was playing cautious. This of course is completely rational for a rookie in his first start on the road versus a very good defensive scheme. Unlike most people, I am not looking to blame someone for the loss, I am simply showing you what happened.
Every instance I am discussing was an opportunity for the Raiders to make a significant play deep, and a couple of them are easy touchdowns especially the wheel route from Streater out of the slot. If Carr sees Streater and makes that throw which for his is easy, the Raiders would have been up 14-3 and the Jets would have been forced to throw with Tarver likely turning up the heat on the blitzes. However, because Carr chose to check down and not take a risk the Jets were able to focus on the run in the second half by loading eight in the box. At that point, the Raiders run game took them off schedule, forcing poor passing situations, and the Jets showed complex blitz looks and then dropped into soft zone confusing Carr.
With all of that being said, Carr did some great things in this game and although I have been skeptical of him, I think he has shown some serious mental fortitude and very rarely let his mechanics break down. Most importantly, he owned the loss in his post game press conference and was already focusing on the tape study. A great sign from a young quarterback and he should be commended for it.
The Texans
I was seriously concerned that doing the film study on the Texans-Redskins game, I would contract a serious eye disease or optical cancer or even cataracts. In short, the Redskins made the Texans look good. Griffin was a disaster especially when they decided to roll him out. Even more oddly, they rolled him out mostly to his left and never tested the Texans deep. Offensively, the Texans lone offensive touchdown came from a blown coverage which can only be defined as utter stupidity. I was not impressed at all by the Texans. The Redskins chose to block Watt one on one with guards who had no concept of appropriate pad level and both Watt and Clowney bent the edge on every pass rush too easily. Furthermore, the Texans were very weak against the run giving up 6.5 yards per carry to Alfred Morris. With no Clowney this week the Raiders could double Watt and have success throwing downfield especially with routes out of the slot.
For the Raiders the gameplan is simple. Get Derek Carr flowing and if they can do that early the run game will open up. Look for Streater to take advantage of nice matchups in the slot and for Rivera to work against inside linebackers in space. An interesting matchup will be James Jones covered by Johnathon Joseph who is a solid cornerback. Derek Carr must be willing to take shots downfield and he needs to realize if he has one on one coverage he needs to give his receiver a chance to get the ball. Running the football is not the necessity for the Raiders. If they get in a groove passing early the running game will follow suit.
One last note, I do not in any way believe that Matt Schaub would have had an appreciably positive impact on the game if he would have started in place of Carr. Schaub showed an inability to go through his progressions in preseason and also did not take enough chances deep. I would have expected the same if not worse results. The fact is Carr is the best option.
Prediction: Raiders win 20-17