Thus begins that magical time of year when the vast majority of the Raider Nation is positive and I get my most readers and page views. Hopefully for all of us, this season does not quickly fade to nothing in the same manner of the last two. I can already hear the few Dennis Allen haters that for whatever reason take two days to shut up, now saying unequivocally, “But as long as DA is the Raiders head coach this team will lose…blah blah blah…dribble….drabble….nonsense…..” Can we simply take one week of the Raiders season where we all look forward at this season with hope and optimism? I highly doubt it, but for those of you who like me want to embrace your inner Rodney King, here we go with a little hope that the Raiders can win and we can all just get along.
Light ‘Em Up
To start the season the Raiders are traveling to some place called New Jersey (I’ve never heard of it and frankly I find the name offensive in some way), to play a team called the Jets who have this really annoying chant. If you have not heard it, just take my word for it. All kidding aside, the Raiders are taking on a very difficult schedule this year, but they open the season against a team they match up well against. As we all know and have heard endlessly, the Jets are a defensive team and they want to play with a lead in order to pressure the quarterback with exotic blitz concepts. The issue this poses for the Raiders is clear especially with a rookie quarterback, but the Jets have issues of their own. the cornerbacks the Jets are fielding for this game are a little known fourth year safety in Antonio Allen, a third year Browns cast off in Leon McFadden, and a Raiders/Seahawks cast off whom was roasted by Derek Carr in the fourth preseason game in Phillip Adams.
Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
For those who like numbers, those three cornerbacks were a combined grade of -23.3 from Pro Football Focus last year. The best thing the Raiders can do to win this football game, is to throw the football. Let Derek Carr go out there and throw. Oddly enough, what may work very well in this game are some spread west coast concepts. Utilizing some shotgun with a combination of short man beater routes such as slants, whips, and back shoulders, along with the occasional wide receiver screen, will put pressure on the cornerbacks to come up and make a tackle while slowing down the pass rush. It also plays to one of Derek Carr’s strengths, his quick release.
Now, I know some of you are probably wondering why I would be in favor of some of the same passing concepts Carr used at Fresno, especially considering I have said for many months now that the spread system actually hurt Carr not helped him. It’s simple, because the defense will play into it. Rex Ryan runs a complex scheme in which he lacks a dominant pass rusher. He has two talented inside rushers both of whom have skills set requiring they bully offensive lineman. The Raiders have a two guards whom stand over 6’5 and weight over 330 pounds, one of which played for the Jets for several years. The interior of this offensive line is what you need to neutralize the talented inside guys, the issues then arise outside.
Coples is not what one would call a naturally dominant pass rusher. Last year he recorded six sacks and had a -7.7 for a pass rushing grade. His total grade was -5.9. In fact the two double digit sackers they have from last year are Calvin Pace and Wilkerson and Pace who tied for the team lead with 11 sacks still had a negative grade from Pro Football Focus. In short, they were sloppy sacks, or schemed sacks not plays that he made by beating an offensive lineman. That is the catch with Rex Ryan defenses they scheme sacks and the best way to counteract that is to get the ball out quickly. Unlike last year when the Raiders played the Jets, they have a significantly better offensive line, better receivers, better running back depth, and most importantly, a better quarterback. What the Raiders need to do is be aggressive, light a fire under the defense by scoring touchdowns, and light up this defense with crisp simplicity.
Lock ‘Em Down
Oddly, last season the Raiders did not have many issues scoring points, the difficulty came in stopping the Jets offense. Sadly, it was not even that great of a performance by the Jets, it was more about mistakes from the Raiders. Geno Smith’s grade for that game was 0.7 even though the Jets scored 37 points. I have never been impressed by Geno Smith and although he has played better this preseason, I believe the Raiders can get to him and rattle him early and often. Of course, the Raiders do need to be concerned about the run game, but it is not Chris Johnson I worry about. Johnson shows all the signs of a running back that has lost a step, but Chris Ivory is a big bodied grinder that can mash it inside. It seems there is a likely scenario where Nick Roach does not play in this game, but that may help the Raiders not hurt them
Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Roach is a very smart player that is a good leader, but he is undersized to play the mike linebacker. That would require the Raiders cycle Maiava and Burris into that spot and/or play Mack there. Personally, I would play Burris and I think we will see plenty of him. The Raiders will need to keep the running game in check. that does not mean they have to dominate, rather just keep the Jets offense of its pace. If the Jets are allowed to have 2nd and 5 frequently, they will be a tough squad to stop and then be allowed to open up the passing game. Tyvon Branch and Charles Woodson will be important in this game as interchangeable pieces that help bottle up the run near the line of scrimmage. Also from a blitzing perspective, they may get opportunities to rattle Smith.
The passing threat to watch out for is Eric Decker. He is big, physical, and understands the tricks of the trade. I am not a big Carlos Rogers fan, but he likely will start for this game. The duo of Brown and Rogers is a decent one and will not allow Smith to pick on a rookie corner until nickel situations which can be simplified responsibilities to prevent confusion. What absolutely needs to happen is for the Raiders veterans to step up and lead this team. If they can instill the discipline needed to prevent mental errors, communication errors, and dumb penalties, then this team can play with most teams.
Result
All in all, this is a winnable game in my mind and oddly, it is nearly a “must win game” for the Raiders. The schedule the Raiders face is intense and there are many many good teams with a ton of travel. In order to prepare better for this game and knowing the history of the Raiders traveling east, the team left on Thursday and is doing walk-throughs in Jersey. This is a tactic that has worked before with the Niners being the best example.
More importantly though, this is a must win game for the fans. I have been saying all preseason that the defense is not playing like normal. It is time to see what this defense can really do. It is also time to see what this offense can really do when all the players are utilized and all the formations are used. This organization and coaching staff need to get a hot start and carry some momentum for once and their inability to do so is not entirely their fault. However, this year they brought in decent players, they have quality rookies, and maybe just maybe against all odds they may even have a decent quarterback who may struggle at times but can make big plays.
The Raider’s coaching staff has done something they have not done the last two years, they went all in. They know what is at stake and do not think for a minute they do not share the frustrations of the fans, but it seems like they may actually have the pieces to make something happen and sensing all of that they have pushed all of their chips onto the table for one last hoorah to save their jobs. To end this, let us all in Raider Nation hope that Dennis Allen does save his job, because that means this team is winning and that is all we really want. It is time to spin the tires and light the fires because the Raiders are starting the Carr and need to come out blazing. Or at least winning.