I am not one for rash decisions or to make wholesale changes during the season. In fact, if it were my call, I would stick it out with Dennis Allen regardless of how bad it gets simply to show stability within the organization and ownership. However, I also understand where the anger comes from and why people want Dennis Allen’s head on a silver platter. Frankly, when I watch the tape, I see a team with a disconnect. What the disconnect is, I cannot pin on one particular thing. In my estimation, the Raiders lost to the Jets despite winning the turnover battle because Derek Carr was too cautious. In the Houston loss, the Raiders gave up four turnovers although Derek Carr was aggressive and pushed the ball down field well. The defense is an entirely different issue, although I do think if the Raiders limited mistakes versus the Texans they could have won regardless.
Houston Recap: Offense
I continue to get comments and question about why the Raiders run game is still struggling. First of all, lets us note that Darren McFadden had a twenty five yard run which was beautifully designed, called back by a holding penalty on Wisniewksi. For those who did not see the penalty, Wisniewski extended his arm to grab a defender after the ball passed causing a holding penalty. What is lost in this play is how well it is designed. This was a toss play with a designed cut back lane to take advantage of over pursuit, and it worked to perfection. This play was only an example of what plagued the Raiders versus the Texans. The one thing that kept the Raiders in the game against the Jets week one was their ability to force turnovers and sack the quarterback. Against the Texans they could do neither, but more importantly the Raiders turned the ball over.
I do not care how good of a coach someone is. It can be Bill Belichick, Lombardi, or even Tom Flores, but if a team turns the ball over four times in a game they are going to lose it is that simple. Many people respond with “Good coaches prepare their players to not have turnovers”. By that logic then it is clear Jim Harbaugh is a pretty poor coach because Colin Kaepernick had several turnovers as well. Fact is, crap happens and when your receivers have two fumbles, well three, on promising drives with the defense on it’s heels, you tend to lose games. Let us not forget to mention the first Derek Carr interception.
The interception by Carr was significant. It proved to be a massive swing in the game. In fact, it should have been a touchdown to a wipe open Marcel Reece who ran a wheel route from a flexed tight end position. I find it ironic that time the Raiders put Reece in a position to shine and take some wind out of the sails of the “Reece is amazing and underused” crowd, is a time where Carr throws and interception he has no business throwing. On this play he starts looking at the right half of the field. After a solid two seconds with great protection he looks left and stares at Rivera for a whole second. In that time Kareem Jackson for some odd reason ignores his deep assignment and focuses on Carr’s eyes. He breaks for the ball and makes a great interception. Of course, had Carr realized what was happening he would have had an easy six points and a 14-7 game.
This was not the only turnover, but it may have been the most important. Similarly to Carr not seeing Streater at the end of the second quarter versus the Jets, this play would have radically changed the early part of the game. Moreover, with the four turnovers at minimum we are looking at a 23 point swing which would have equaled a Raiders win. Many fans look at this game as some sort of disgrace or humiliating loss. For me, this is the sort of loss you will see with a rookie quarterback and a team in a weird funk. Last week I criticized Olson’s timidity, but against the Texans he and Carr were very aggressive. Similar to the Jets game, the running game was effective when the passing game was in sync, but once the game got away from the Raiders it fell apart. Lastly, I thought the offensive play calling was solid. The execution was poor. Some will want to blame a lack of inspiration from coaching. I am sick of hearing that. I have been hearing that line for a decade. These are professionals, they should be inspired by their own self value and their drive for a better paycheck.
Houston Recap: Defense
There are two aspects of the defense I want to focus on. Firstly, and this is one that goes directly at the detractors of Dennis Allen, the Raiders were torched early on by a trips set that exposed the defense. In the film study I did of the Texans I never saw that set. However, upon watching the use of the set I saw Bill Belichick written all over it. The Texans seemed to come to the line with a plan and always found a way to run the ball effectively by winning the numbers game. After shredding the Raiders in the first quarter, the Raiders coaching staff adjusted nicely and effectively neutralized the set. Later in the game it was a more traditional zone blocking scheme that ran the clock out.
Now that I have given the staff the credit it was due by making a nice in game adjustment, it is time to tear Jason Tarver apart. After the Jets game I made the assumption that we would see some press coverage and more refined blitzes. What I actually saw on tape was the exact opposite. For some reason Tarver is choosing to use a wide variety of 34 looks and personnel groupings. In many instances, Woodley is used as a hybrid Leo (a pseudo defensive end in a two point stance), but Woodley is most effective with his hand in the dirt in a three point stance as a 43 rush end. The same goes for Justin tuck however they are using him as a five technique that two gaps. In other words, Tuck is lining up over the right tackle and is engaging him them reacting to the play rather than lining up wide and penetrating the offensive line.
In most basic terms, the Raiders are running a scheme that does not fit the personnel. What makes things even more confusing, is the fact that the Raiders do switch back into 43 personnel looks and show themselves to be very competent. The majority of the good plays or even simply the effective plays were from 43 looks.
The other aspect of this defense that continues to baffle me is the lack of press coverage. This decision does not seem to be one that comes from Dennis Allen. It is known that Allen helps with gameplans and installs, but the play calls are from Tarver. At this point the only solution I see to save this defense and by extension to save Dennis Allen’s job, is for him to take over play calling duties which he intimated in his post game press conference he would be considering. Allen has had a bit of a hands off style which is what good coaches do, but he has been too hands off. It is time for him to take control of this defense and show what he showed when coaching the Broncos in 2011. I believe in his defensive scheme and unless the Raiders make the shift back to his approach he will be gone at the bye.
The central difference between what Tarver is doing now and what Allen did in Denver starts with the personnel. Firstly, the defensive ends rushed the passer first, they were aggressive, and constantly attacking. Secondly, Allen used Von Miller as a dynamic weapon both in coverage and as a joker against any play. The Raiders have that sort of player in Khalil Mack who has flashed at times and is getting better every game. The Raiders with the sort of scheme Allen used in Denver could produce large quantities of pressure by running quick stunts and twists with the ends and Mack or even Sio. Along with going back to press coverage which could buy and additional second in order to help the pass rush, the Raiders could make some things happen.
In all sincerity, the only way Dennis Allen is saving his job beyond week four is by making these changes. If he does not, most likely the Raiders will suffer a couple defeats and Mark Davis will be looking to make a statement, and I would not hold it against him. I like every Raiders fan wants what is best for the organization and to me the biggest need is stability. If the Raiders can find a way to win six games and then fire this staff and possibly general manager at the end of the season, at least the public perception would be that Mark Davis had the patience to see it through. If that were to happen Mark Davis could swing for the fences in the offseason. In the meantime, let us all hope Allen makes the immediate changes he needs to make and the Raiders win enough to stay interesting.
New England Preview
Watching the New England versus Minnesota game was remarkably similar to the Raiders versus Texans game. Every time the Vikings began to move the ball they ended up shooting themselves in the foot and in the end gave up four turnovers just as the Raiders did. What worked early on for the Vikings were bootleg passes to receivers in the flat. The inability of Matt Cassell to tempt the Patriots deep ended up being a significant liability for the Vikings. The run defense of the Patriots was very leaky at times and they gave up consistent yardage. Offensively, the Patriots ran the ball well, but the interior of the offensive line is extremely weak. To be honest the performance of the Patriots offense was mediocre at best.
The issues facing the Raiders are simple. Defensively, assuming the Raiders switch to the Allen scheme, have to get the receivers off their marks and timing through press coverage. In conjunction, the team must – and I emphasize must – get interior pressure. Although Justin Ellis is not a pass rusher, this is a game where his sheer size could cause enough of a disruption inside versus a weak interior line group that it throws the Patriots passing game off. Of course part of the gameplan will be to stop Stevan Ridley inside, but the real threat will be Vereen especially coming out of the backfield. Lastly, the Raiders do not need to stop Gronkowski they only need to limit him and Tyvon Branch has a history of matching up well against him. This game will not be easy, but if the Raiders can get to Brady they can put up a good fight.
Offensively, the Raiders need to be a pass first team. They have to put the Patriots defense on the back foot. The reason why Bill Belichick is considered a defensive genius is his tendency to mix his zone coverage. The best way to expose and simplify the reads of a zone coverage is by spreading a defense out and forcing the defenders to show their responsibilities. Revis will likely be there to take away the Raiders “best wide” receiver. Most likely this will be James Jones. I however, consider the best receiver to be Rod Streater and I believe his work out of the slot could be where the Raiders can be most successful. What Derek Carr cannot afford to be is scared to challenge this defense. It will bend and give up yards. The offensive line for the Raiders has been coming together nicely and I believe they match up well against the Patriots front four. Penn has been quite solid and the big guards of the Raiders will be able to man up against Wilfork.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Raiders 21