It is no secret that the Oakland Raiders are in firm command of the “race” for the first overall pick, but according to the statistical minds at numberFire, the Raiders have an even bigger edge than the rest of the NFL despite not holding the strength of schedule over the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Tampa Bay Bucs.
numberFire gives the Raiders a 59.62% chance of getting the first overall pick, which is over 40% higher than the chance that any other team winds up with the pick. That number likely accounts for the Raiders slim chance of winning another game this season as they play the playoff chasing Niners, Chiefs, Bills and Broncos in December.
numberFire’s first overall pick projections are as follows:
Oakland Raiders – 59.62%
Jacksonville Jaguars – 16.98%
Tampa Bay Bucs – 10.16%
Tennessee Titans – 7.92%
New York Jets – 4.74%
Washington Redskins – 0.30%
New York Giants – 0.28%
It is interesting that the Raiders have such a commanding statistical edge when it comes to likelihood of finishing with the first overall pick as one win could potentially see them losing out on the strength of schedule tiebreaker to either the Bucs or the Jaguars come the end of the season. However it is very likely the Raiders don’t win another game this year and both the Jaguars or the Bucs could very well sneak a win over December so numberFire’s projections could end up holding true come the end of the season.
For more numberFire NFL statistical information click on the following link below. (These guys have some good advanced statistics that any NFL fan should put into their reading rotation)