Dec 20, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Mike Neal (96) sacks Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) with Packers outside linebacker Julius Peppers (56) during the fourth quarter at O.co Coliseum. The Green Bay Packers defeated the Oakland Raiders 30-20. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
The Oakland Raiders lost a tough game against Green Bay in the Coliseum. Despite holding the Packers offense to two touchdowns and keeping Aaron Rodgers to 204 yards passing, the Raiders surrendered 30 points. This proved an insurmountable obstacle for their inconsistent offense. While there are several reasons to be excited about this upwardly trending team, the Green Bay game showed there are still a variety of weaknesses to be addressed before this team can truly make a splash in the playoffs. It is this dual nature of exciting promise & amateur inconsistency that has come to define the Raiders 2015 season.
According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders have hovered between the 10th and 15th ranked team in the league according to weighted-DVOA since Week 10, more often than not hitting that #12 spot. This feels about right, considering the eye test on the field and the context of being in a league in which only 14 of the 32 teams has a record of .500 or better. Interestingly enough, what stands out about the team in the last six weeks is exactly how they’ve managed to stay around that #12 spot.
In Week 10 the Raiders had the 6th best offensive DVOA grade in the league. The defense at this time was ranked 24th in the league. After Week 15 the Raiders offense has dropped to 12th in the league, while the defense has risen to 14th. A big clue to the drop in offensive efficiency can be found in the offense’s DVOA variance, which Football Outsiders has calculated at 9.8% – good for 27th in the league. This is a metric of consistency, measuring the gap between their lowest and highest performances (i.e. The Raiders offense is horribly inconsistent).
While there are several components to the elevated defensive play and the declining offensive play, the Green Bay game highlighted two of the standout players on each side of the ball: Derek Carr and David Amerson. Since Week 10, Derek Carr has thrown seven interceptions (excluding several dropped potential INTs) after throwing only four interception in the first eight games. Meanwhile, David Amerson has been a superstar. Amerson has received Pro Football Focus‘s highest grade in coverage among all cornerbacks in the league since Week 10.
This week in the Film Room we’ll look at standout plays from each of these players which are emblematic of their overall performance in this time span. First up: Derek Carr.
Next: Carr Throws Picks