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Oakland Raiders: Potential Draft Strategies

By Rory Anderson

Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the podium on stage before the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the podium on stage before the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 13, 2014; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (5) fights at the line with Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns offensive linesman Donovan Williams (77) during the game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 13, 2014; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (5) fights at the line with Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns offensive linesman Donovan Williams (77) during the game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports /

Draft Strengths

Similarly to the 2013 draft, this draft only has a few elite talents and the best talents in this draft are either coming off injury or have had suspect character incidents. There are deep parallels between the drafts and yet also some significant differences. Quoting an article written by NFL Media analyst Bucky Brooks from April 16, 2013 just before that season’s draft, “NFL executives and scouts have characterized the 2013 NFL draft class as one that lacks superstar talents at the top of the board but is littered with quality prospects down the line… ‘This draft is not top heavy,’ Elway told the Denver Post’s Mike Klis. ‘So we feel we can get as good a player at No.28 as we could at 10.'”

This excerpt implies dozens of things, but there needs to be one significant idea extracted from it. The separation of talent and value in the first round of the draft more closely mirror the middle rounds than we normally assume with drafts. The talk amongst the scouting profession this draft is quite similar. Several reports have come out discussing how many teams only see 10 players worthy of first round grades or something to that effect. Personally, I have believe there are 12 players worthy of first round grades and two of those are coming off of significant injuries, one of which Jalyon Smith, may never be the same player again.

What does this mean for the Raiders picking at 14? Frankly, it is not good. Most likely, the Raiders will see all of the round one grades disappear off of the board within the first 12 picks and the two remaining prospects worthy of the selection will be a player with the potential to never play a down in the NFL (Jaylon Smith), or a guy who fell out of a hotel window and blamed his teammate (Robert Nkemdiche). More importantly, Nkemdiche is an ideal fit for the Raiders and what they do, but he is one of 20 quality prospects that play his position which means there is significant value there as well.

Ultimately what faces the Raiders is a difficult decision. People love to claim that Reggie McKenzie always looks for choir boys. That is untrue, but for him it always comes down to a discussion of value. Does the upside reflect a comparable value to the risk? For Nkemdiche in this draft for the Raiders, the answer is a resounding yes. However, another team may think they exact same thing and decide that the lack of elite talent should motivate them to trade up. Raider fans need to remember that the NFL draft trade chart is a guide, but actual value is derived from perception and draft day trades more times than not have no reflection of the chart.

What does this all mean? In short, trading has become somewhat in vogue. NFL teams are learning that most positions are skill specific and value is fluid. Combining that a lessened value at the top of the draft due to a lack of elite talent and you have a combination to motivate teams to be much more active trading picks early. By the chart, a move from 22 to 14 would cost a second round pick. In this draft, it might net the Raiders a third round pick. But in the end, that move could actually be highly advantageous for both teams involved.

Next: Draft Preview: Raking the strengths of the 2016 class

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