Here are the strengths of this draft laid out simply:
1. Interior defensive line, safety, running back, and linebacker are all deep
2. Most prospects add high upside versatility
3. Diminished round one values could lead to more fluid trading
This piece is not about getting into player reviews, but in order to discuss draft strategies one must hit the deep positions in this draft and how they effect the Raiders. McKenzie stunned myself and many others when he signed Bruce Irvin and basically let Malik Jackson go to Jacksonville with little fight. Interestingly, both players fit the scheme in Oakland, but Reggie seems to have made a value judgment regarding both money and draft availability that he could add the talent he needs along the defensive line in the draft rather than free agency.
The Raiders have a young and deep defensive line group spear headed by two nose tackles and two five technique defensive ends. Ken Norton Jr has proven himself to be very flexible and fluid. What the Raiders have amassed along with Bruce Irvin and the continued public interest in retaining Aldon Smith, is a deep and devastating 34 based front seven.
This draft class at defensive end is primarily built upon the same sort of defensive ends the Raiders employ. The 34 defensive end plays the “5 technique”. This player traditionally lines up head on with the offensive tackle and employs “2 gapping” where he stands up the offensive lineman and controls the gap on each side of the lineman. These players are usually at least 6’3, weigh 280-320 pounds, and have at least 33.25 inch arms in length. For the Raiders, the only defensive end they have that does not meet these standards is Shelby Harris and he is only half of an inch short.
The difference between those players and the combination of Justin Ellis and Dan Williams is stark. Ellis and Williams are both 6’2 or under, both above 325 pounds, and Ellis’ arm length is under 33.25 inches while Williams’ is 33.5 inches. There is a clear delineation of what the Raiders are looking for in terms of their defensive line group and this draft is loaded with the kinds of defensive ends the Raiders are searching for.
In terms of simplification, the Raiders will likely be looking for someone who is closer to Deforest Buckner rather than Sheldon Rankins. “Our area scout really likes him a lot and he’s already angling for us to consider him, but he falls outside of the physical parameters of what we want from inside guys. I see him as only a 4-3 nose for a one gapping defense and that’s the only fit,” says former Louisville defensive tackle Brandon Dunn on Rankins’ official NFL.com draft profile page.
Sheldon Rankins makes a wonderfully fun Vine, but outside of the Twitter-sphere talent evaluators have certain parameters they desire, and those practices have showed to work. In the end, there is something for every defensive front in this group. The question always becomes one of value and when to select the talent you want.
Similarly to interior defensive line, there is a huge talent pool at the safety position providing everything from true free safety prospects such as Vonn Bell, to versatile guys like Karl Joseph, and big in box safety/linebacker types with Su’a Cravens and to a lesser degree Jeremy Cash. Moreover, this class has real value between rounds 2 and 4 where the difference in talent is minimal from prospect to prospect. The problem for the Raiders is that this is the one significant position of need, but there are no prospects that fit the bill to select at 14. Karl Joseph is close, but coming off of an injury his risk mitigates his value.
Many Raider fans are worried about inside linebacker, but if you consider the Raiders play more of a 34 structure or at least blur the lines between schemes, and the fact Bruce Irvin will force Malcolm Smith inside, the Raiders have two outside linebackers in Mack and Irvin with three inside linebackers in Smith, Heeney, and Ball. If the Raiders do retain Aldon that balances it out, but it would be more likely that they add a hybrid edge player than an inside linebacker early. I will touch on the edge group in the weaknesses, but the similarity both positions have is the strength of the group comes out in round three and four where there are some great values with significant upside. For inside linebacker, Kendall Brothers, Blake Martinez, and Nick Vigil all hit that mark.
The strengths of this draft play well to the needs of the Oakland Raiders, the hard decision is whether or not to stay at 14 or to move for quite possibly minimal value. There can also be discussions on whether or not the Raiders should trade up to get a potential stud player.
Next: Draft Preview: Draft Weaknesses