Should the Oakland Raiders consider drafting Jaylon Smith?

Recapping the Jaylon Smith situation, and examining whether or not the Oakland Raiders should still consider drafting him.

New Year’s Day 2016 — Jaylon Smith, All-American linebacker for Notre Dame, was getting ready to play what presumably would be his final college football game; the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State. Jaylon was widely considered to be at least a top-ten pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, so the assumption was that he would declare.

Smith did end up declaring for the NFL Draft, but unfortunately, he suffered a severe knee injury with about eight minutes remaining in the first quarter. The injury happened just as the play was ending, or maybe shortly after. Ohio State tackle Taylor Decker shoved Smith — nothing malicious or dirty, just a fairly standard post-play push — but as Smith was stumbling away after being pushed, his leg planted and his knee bent in a way that knees should not bend.

Just like that, everything changed.

The initial reports following the injury were optimistic — that the injury wasn’t as bad as it looked. There have been mixed reports in the months following that he may or may not have nerve damage in his knee. And there were mixed opinions on whether or not if there is nerve damage, what the recovery process and timeframe would be like.

Fast forwarding to today, there has been little progress made in his recovery. From the NFL Combine in February, when Jaylon was flagged to have a medical re-check, to when that re-check took place on April 15th, there also has been very little progress.

Ian Rapoport tweeted out that Smith is likely to sit out all of 2016. Pro Football Talk and other major media outlets have reported similar things.

This is of course awful news for Smith, who was once a likely top-ten pick, now has to worry about whether or not he’ll even be drafted. Which brings us to the big question that 32 NFL teams will now have to ask themselves: When do you take a chance on drafting him?

According to a poll I ran, most feel the 3rd or 4th round is the best spot for him. But responses have ranged from they’d still be okay with Jaylon at 14, all the way to he’s not even worth a 7th round draft pick.

As wide of a range of opinions as that is, arguments can be made on both sides, and there will be NFL teams on both sides of the spectrum. There are already reports that several teams will have him completely off their draft board, but there will surely be people in NFL front offices willing to take a risk with a high draft pick.

So when should the Oakland Raiders consider drafting Jaylon Smith, if at all?

As already mentioned, Jaylon was a likely top-ten pick, and many in the draft media had him as a top-five player. If an NFL team is confident that his knee will heal after one year and that he can be the same player he was before the injury, then a high-pick is justifiable.

But of course, that’s the whole debate. The risk averse will be opposed to drafting Smith with anything more than a day three selection. The risk takers will feel that a second or third round selection, or maybe even higher, is worth it.

Just like with many decisions in life, the question here is if the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. For the Raiders, I do believe that the reward outweighs the risk, and that the team is in a position where they can afford to take that risk.

Specifically, the first and second round is hard to justify. There should be very good players available with each of those selections. But if Jaylon is still available in the third round, I would have no qualms at all if he were the selection.

Here’s why.

There is a solid foundation that has been established in Oakland. There is a great combination of young talent and veteran players alike, and for the first time in a long time, there is a sense of stability around the team. Stadium issues aside.

This is important to mention because it’s part of the reason why the team can afford to take the risk. If Jaylon doesn’t ever become the player he once was, it won’t be damaging to the foundation that is in place. The Raiders won’t fall back into the basement of the NFL’s power rankings, and won’t become perennial contenders for the top overall draft pick again.

It would certainly not be ideal, but at the cost of a third-rounder, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. And at that cost, that is where I believe the potential reward outweighs the potential risk.

The potential reward is getting a player that is a special talent who can have a long, successful career in Silver & Black. Who can grow with the young core of Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, and the rest of the team. If he returns to form, he becomes an absolute steal in the third round. That’s the reward.

The potential risk is a wasted draft pick where someone else could have been selected. But in the third-round, if that’s where he is picked, that’s not nearly as damaging of a scenario.

An ideal scenario that could justify the risk is if the Raiders are able to trade down from the 14th pick and gain an extra third-round selection, which they then use on Smith. In doing so, they will have created an asset, making it a little less of a risk. If this can be done, then it won’t feel like it’s a complete flier of a pick, because another player would also be selected in the third round.

However, that’s if Jaylon is even available in the third round. There could be a team out there, an NFL Owner or GM, who believes the reward outweighs the risk before the Raiders decide the same thing. That is what makes deciding when to draft Jaylon so tricky.

One of the arguments against drafting Smith is that the Raiders need someone to contribute this year. I don’t see why that’s the case. This is a VERY young football team that has an opportunity to be good for many years to come. It’s not like they are in a Super Bowl or bust window that’s about to close.

The draft is a long-term investment. You are drafting with the hope that the player can contribute for the entirety of their rookie contract and beyond. So don’t look at Smith’s situation through the scope of a one-year lens.

In my opinion, the obvious concern here is whether or not he can return to form. Him sitting out one year means very little to me, because if he comes back and has a 10-year career, then that one missed year doesn’t mean anything.

The parallel to Marcus Lattimore is the most relatable example to Jaylon’s situation. Lattimore was a very good player and a likely first-round selection, who also suffered a terrible knee injury. The San Francisco 49ers drafted him in the fourth round of the 2013 draft, the 131st selection, and Lattimore never played a snap in the NFL. He’s since retired from football at the age of 23.

That is the worst-case scenario, and something that will weigh heavy on the minds of NFL teams.

For Reggie McKenzie and as to why I think he’ll consider drafting Smith at some point — D.J. Hayden had the scary heart issue and McKenzie still picked him. Hayden’s issue was potentially life-threatening, yet alone career threatening. He was medically cleared, but plenty of risk was still there. And he took that risk in the first round.

Jaylon is a superior prospect than Hayden was, and a knee injury isn’t as scary as a heart issue. So if team doctors can took a look at Smith, and feel that his knee will heal and he just needs some time to recover, then I’m all for it.

Especially with how young this team is and how bright the future looks. The Raiders started to swing for the fences with free agency this year by adding Kelechi Osemele, Sean Smith and Bruce Irvin. They’re gearing up to be competitors very, very soon.

Swing for the fences one more time by drafting Jaylon Smith.