Predicting Derek Carr’s contract extension

Predicting the eventual contract extension of Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr.

Over the past few weeks, talks have been heating up both privately and publicly, regarding Derek Carr’s contract extension with the Oakland Raiders. Carr is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and is set to be among the highest paid quarterbacks in the league, if not the highest.

Earlier this week, Carr went on the record to say that the beginning of training camp would be his ideal deadline for when he would like his contract to be completed:

"“I wouldn’t even answer the phone”, Carr said. “The money isn’t the thing that drives me. If it does, then I shouldn’t be standing here. I don’t want anything distracting my thought process at all. That’s not a jab or anything like that. That’s just me saying I’m not going to deal with anything that’s not helping me focus on winning.”"

In his first three seasons in the NFL, Carr has set some franchise benchmarks, as well as making some NFL history along the way. Through his first three seasons, Carr ranks 4th all time in touchdown passes (81), 2nd all time in completions (1,055), 2nd all time in TD-INT differential (+50), and he is also only the fourth quarterback ever to have at least 300 completions in his first three seasons.

Considering these numbers, they not only put Carr in elite company, but it also means he will be paid like an elite player. Seeing how handsomely quarterbacks have been getting paid over the past five to six years, expect Reggie McKenzie to back up the brinks truck to pay the team’s franchise quarterback.

But how much will his deal be for? Let’s crunch some numbers, come up with prediction and see how his deal compares with other top-flight NFL QB’s.

For quite some time now, the baseline for Carr’s new deal has been considered what Andrew Luck received from the Colts. Luck currently leads the market with a $24.5 million average per year, with his old money value at $23.2 million average per year.

Now, this is where it gets complicated.

Even if Carr gets his $25 million average per year, his old money value is only at an adjusted $21 million, because Carr is slated to make a base salary of $977,000 in the last year of his rookie contract. Meaning that Carr would have to average $27.6 million per year in order to get value equal to that of Luck’s deal. This would also mean that Carr’s contract would end up being $17 million more on the total value — Luck at $122 million and Carr at $139 million.

So basically, Carr’s extension could end up around five years between $135 to $139 million, with around $40 to $45 million guaranteed at signing and total guarantees in the neighborhood of $80 to $90 million.

Other contracts to compare are that of Russell Wilson ($21 million per year) and Aaron Rodgers ($22 million), but Carr’s deal should surpass both.

When Carr puts pen on paper, he will reset the market and establish a new baseline for franchise quarterbacks who are due for extension, such as Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins. And deservedly so. Carr has vehemently expressed his desire to get this deal done as he does not want to have this distraction hanging over him or the team during the season.

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Seeing as the Raiders are going into the 2017 season with Super Bowl aspirations, Carr is the focal point of the aspirations. Very simply put, the Raiders go as he goes.

Training camp is a little less than two months away, and considering that both sides want to get this deal done, expect that to happen before camp.