The 2019 NFL Playoffs enter the Divisional Round this weekend, and we take a look at who is playing, and predict the outcome of each game.
The first round of the NFL playoffs was highly regarded as the most entertaining wild-card playoffs we’ve seen over the past decade. Ratings were up 12% compared to the previous season’s wild-card, mainly due to the unpredictability of each game. Today, I will predict who I believe will win in the Divisional Round of the playoffs this weekend.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, 1:35pm PT Saturday
The game that I will be most interested in is this one. The Indianapolis Colts are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. They simply don’t get the love they deserve. And although I love the Kansas City Chiefs offense, I believe they are going to lose to the Colts in a wild offensive game, 42-35.
Kansas City has the No. 1 offense in the NFL, but at the same time has the No. 24 ranked defense. They are not a well-balanced team, unlike the Indianapolis Colts, who have the fifth-best offense, and tenth-best defense. That kind of combination on offense and defense is rare. The main reason I believe the Colts will win is that since Week 6, they’ve given up 15.5 points per game on average, which would rank them as the best defense in the NFL in that time span.
Another reason I don’t like the Chief’s is their defense. Since week10, the unit has given up 35.6 points per game on defense, not including there week 17 game vs Oakland. Although I really like Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs offense is not the same when their big plays are held in check, and the Colts do a great job against this.
Teams have attempted a total of 44 deep passes vs the Colts, the least in the NFL. Indianapolis plays one of the most basic defenses in the league and limits opposing offense to big plays. According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts rarely ever blitz, only 19% of the time, the third lowest rate in NFL. And 32% of the time they’re running Cover 2, and 37% of the time it’s a Cover3. Now, this simplicity might seem like a negative, but that kind of simplicity is why the Seattle Seahawks had so much success a few seasons ago with there cover 3 zone to man defense.