Sitting at No. 4 overall, the Oakland Raiders could pass on an edge rusher, especially if two of the bigger names are already off the board.
Most of the 2019 mock drafts I’ve seen done by sports analysts include the Oakland Raiders taking an edge rusher, whether that is Clemson’s Clelin Ferrell or Michigan’s Rashan Gary. However, is it possible that the Raiders skip drafting a edge rusher all together at No. 4, and instead target a different position of need?
I believe there’s a strong possibility Oakland doesn’t select a pass rusher with their first pick, and I’ll explain why.
First, I believe Nick Bosa and Josh Allen are the only pass rushers worthy of a top-5 pick. No other pass rusher has proven enough on tape to be chosen in the top 5 picks.
So unless Bosa or Allen are available, I don’t think the Raiders reach and take a pass rusher this early in the draft, when it is loaded with pass rushers.
Second, Gruden spent a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th round pick on defensive linemen last year. I know folks will quickly point to how bad our sack total was last year. However, a rookie player improves drastically going into year two of their career.
Take a look at some examples of defensive linemen, and their sack numbers from rookie to second-year:
- Khalil Mack: 4 to 16 sacks
- Vic Beasley Jr: 4 to 16 sacks
- Myles Garrett: 7 to 15 sacks
- Danielle Hunter: 5 to 13 sacks
- Markus Golden: 7 to 13 sacks
- T.J. Watt: 7 to 13 sacks
So unless you think our three rookie defensive linemen are busts, you have to let them develop. I personally believe the Raiders should trade with a team that is picking in the top-12 and choose either Greedy Williams or Devin White, both from LSU.
Jon Gruden has already shown interest in trading back. “We may move up with the No. 4 pick; we may move back with that pick. We’ll see how it all unfolds.”
Lastly, when Gruden talked about why they skipped on Derwin James, and instead selected Kolton Miller, he said that it was because the Raiders had drafted a safety the year before with a 2nd round pick. Gruden drafts based on team need, over the best available prospect, which is how a team should draft.
Although it looks like the Raiders are a long ways away, they do have some solid pieces on the team. The Raiders secondary last year was ranked top-10 vs. wide receivers, the defensive line was full of young players who showed tremendous potential, the offensive line is one of the league’s best when healthy, and of course, they have Derek Carr.
Edge rusher is definitely a glaring need for the Raiders, but unless they can move up, instead of down, they should focus their efforts elsewhere with the No. 4 pick overall.