Oakland Raiders 2019 over/under: 5 interceptions for Gareon Conley

The Oakland Raiders got a tremendous season from Gareon Conley in 2018, and he could make the jump into superstardom this year.

Every year leading up to the regular season for the Oakland Raiders there was always a toss up on who would be the cornerback that finally acts as the anchor of the group. This offseason will finally negate that question and anything else similar. Gareon Conley has asserted himself as the number one corner for the Raiders after his phenomenal play in the second half of the 2018 season.

Looking ahead to 2019, there should be many expectations tied to Conley’s performance. One of those expectations is the number of interceptions he should reel in. The number for him to beat is three  interceptions since that’s what he tallied last season. A good range for him to be in to be viewed as elite for some is over 5 interceptions.

So with that said, over or under 5 interceptions for Gareon Conley in 2019?

While he is capable of accumulating 6 interceptions, I just don’t see it for him in 2019. The under is the more sound call on this line, which isn’t a knock on his talent  as opposed to the talent around him. Conley is a rising star in this league and has established himself as a great cornerback.

Not too many quarterbacks are going to want to target a side or a receiver that Conley is on. It’s much more enticing to throw away from him, especially since outside of Gareon Conley the Raiders cornerbacks are unproven.

Daryl Worley had a strong second half of 2018, but wasn’t as great as Conley. Why throw against someone who’s sound in coverage when they could try to exploit the unproven players? That’s why I only see Gareon Conley bringing in four interceptions, which is a solid number. Interceptions are an overrated stat to rate or view cornerbacks anyways.

That’s why we have analytics to really show us a cornerbacks resume. Usually it’s the great cornerbacks that hardly have any interceptions. Just look at the last elite corner the Raiders had in Nnamdi Asomugha. He hardly had any to his name because no one wanted to try him.

Conley isn’t Asomugha lockdown status yet, but he won’t be seeing a lot of passes thrown his way. I suspect quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Phillip Rivers will test him the most because they’ll see him the most and are fearless when it comes to slinging it.

Regardless of how many interceptions he reels in, that’s not what we’re going to measure when it comes to reviewing his 2019 season. Sure it’s an added bonus if he has a lot of picks, but if he can take out an offense’s top receiver out of the game then that’s even more significant.

In some cases, having 5-8 interceptions could be a bad thing because that would indicate that a cornerback is seeing a high volume of targets. High volume as a cornerback means that they’re being viewed as a weak link. That the offense saw something in his game that they could capitalize.

So even though 5-8 interceptions is sweet, it could also be a negative indication that the cornerback is getting abused. Nevertheless, It’s not something that we’ll have to worry about when it comes to Gareon Conley. I fully expect him to elevate his play this season and watch him dominate in coverage.