2020 Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under: Derek Carr 30 TDs
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is entering his third year under Jon Gruden and has improved every season, but will he be able to reach to 30-touchdown mark in 2020?
By many statistical measures, Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr had a career year in 2019. Carr set career highs in passing yards with 4054, a completion percentage of 70.4, a passer rating of 100.8, a QBR of 63.7, and in yards per attempt at 7.9.
In the context of the rest of the NFL, Carr finished eighth in yards, second in completion percentage behind Drew Brees, tenth in passer rating, ninth in QBR, and was tied for 9th in yards per attempt. These are of course some of the categories that Carr excelled in but the primary category where he was less than great was in passing touchdowns.
Carr recorded 21 touchdowns in 2019, the third lowest amount in his career and just enough to crack the top 20 in the league, though QBs who played much fewer games like Brees or Daniel Jones surpassed him.
All stats need further context and in the case of Derek Carr’s touchdown total in 2019, much context is needed. The first point to remember is the glaring lack of weapons at wide receiver that Carr and the Raiders had to battle through after the Antonio Brown debacle.
For much of the year, Carr could only rely on tight end Darren Waller as his outside weapons were either out injury or dealing with chronic conditions that severely hampered their production. The revolving door at the receiver position hurt primarily in the red zone as the Raiders receivers were targeted just 13 times in the end zone, good enough for last in the league, per NFL.com.
The second point is how much the Raiders struggles on defense contributed to the Raiders struggles on offense. The Raiders were 31st in takeaways with just 15 and had a minus-2 turnover differential. The lack of turnovers meant that Carr had less opportunities than many other quarterbacks as the Raiders were 31st in total drives in 2019.
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With all of the statistics and context in mind, the question posed is will Derek Carr throw for more or less than 30 touchdowns in 2020. Carr has exceeded the 30-mark just once in his career with 32 during the 2015 season but came close with 28 during the 2016 season that was cut short in the 4th quarter of week 16. It is reasonable to assume Carr would’ve thrown another two touchdowns in the remaining five quarters of the season to give him 30 on the year.
In both 2015 and 2016 Carr had a special rapport with his receiver trio of Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, and Seth Roberts and it showed in the stat sheet. All three would have been starters on the 2019 Raiders, even Michael Crabtree whose career effectively ended after his 2018 season with the Baltimore Ravens.
If Carr is to reach or exceed the 30 touchdown mark then a few things would have to happen, primarily Carr playing all 16 games which he has done four times in his six-year career. Secondly the Raiders would need to upgrade the wide receiver group which by all accounts they plan to do.
If the Raiders bring in a free agent wide receiver such as Robby Anderson or Emmanuel Sanders and select a wide receiver or two in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, then we can say with the utmost confidence that 30 touchdowns is very much in play. Since Carr’s rookie year in 2015, a QB, including Carr himself, has thrown for 30 or more touchdowns in a single season 32 times so it is somewhat rarefied air but a level that he will need to strive to return to.
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Ahead of the 2019 season, Carr spoke about his new comfort level with the Gruden offense in year two and it was reflected in his play on the field. If he continues on the same trajectory in year three and is given outside weapons to pair with Waller and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow then he will continue to set career highs in all the meaningful quarterback stats.