2020 Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under: Josh Jacobs 1500 rush yards
The Case for the Under
Assuming that Jacobs plays all 16 games next year, gets a similar amount of carries, and all other things remain equal then he could theoretically reach the 1,500 yard mark. However there are a number of factors working against him achieving that milestone.
The first is history and how things have changed in the NFL in recent years. Since the year 2000 there have been 44 players to rush for 1,500 yards in a season but there have been only 10 since 2010. In fact, Derrick Henry was the first back to do so since Ezekiel Elliot in 2016 so it is becoming increasingly rare. This fits the trend in the NFL as it continues moving towards a passing league with QBs putting up astronomical numbers compared to previous eras.
The next factor is more of a decision by the Raiders to protect one of their most talented players and keep him as explosive as he was his rookie year. Sure the Raiders could give Jacobs 300 carries in 2020 but the more prudent thing to do is to bring in another young back and take some of the weight off his shoulders. Jacobs would still be the lead back but giving him less carries would keep him fresh for what the Raiders will hope is a postseason push and help him avoid another injury like the one that shortened his rookie season.
The final factor is more of a positive and is Jacobs becoming more of a receiving threat out of the backfield. Jacobs had only 20 receptions last season but made some big plays when he was targeted, even as a checkdown for Derek Carr. Rookie running backs often struggle with pass protection and learning route trees so the Raiders would often lean on veteran Jalen Richard in obvious passing situations.
If Jacobs is able to work on that aspect of the game then he will be an even more dangerous weapon for the Raiders due to his versatility. This versatility may hurt his rushing totals but will significantly boost his yards from scrimmage which is the more likely scenario.