Las Vegas Raiders may benefit from Patrick Mahomes deal

Las Vegas Raiders may benefit from Patrick Mahomes deal

Paying a QB makes team-building difficult

There have been dozens of articles written about how the biggest market inefficiency in the NFL these days is having a good to great quarterback on a rookie deal. Rookie deals can be far below the market value of what a good quarterback is actually worth, as evidenced by Mahomes and Lamar Jackson making less than a million in base salary for their respective MVP campaigns.

There is a direct correlation in most cases to a quarterback on a lower tier salary and the success of the team overall. Just a quick glance at the Super Bowl teams in the last half-decade or so reinforces that correlation.

The Rams, Chiefs, Eagles, and Seahawks made or won a Super Bowl with a quarterback on a rookie contract, and the Patriots success has been partially fueled by Tom Brady playing at a relative discount to his market value. The 49ers may have paid Jimmy Garroppolo $20 million last year, but that was outside the top-10 in quarterback salary, and they had the benefit of picking at the top of every round after his injury in 2018.

Of the top-15 QB salaries in 2019,  only six led their team to the playoffs, and just four won their respective divisions. Derek Carr incidentally was ranked 10th last season and as you know the Raiders were unsuccessful in their playoff push.

The reason for the correlation is simple math. When you dedicate such a large percentage of your salary cap to a single player, even one as important as your starting quarterback, you don’t have enough money leftover to pay your best players or bring in top free agents. Teams have to rely on finding below market contracts and drafting well and both of those can be a crap shoot.

The Chiefs have drafted very well in recent years, especially on offense, but even they have their lulls and that could spell trouble when Mahomes’s contract is eating up so much more of the salary cap.