2020 Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under: Derek Carr 4,500 yards
The Case for the Over
The case for the over is predicated on two things as well, the first being Carr’s level of comfort in Jon Gruden’s offense. Both Rich Gannon and Carr saw their numbers increase year over year in Gruden’s offense, and in his fourth year, Gannon threw for 4,689 yards and was the NFL MVP.
It may be presumptuous to put Carr in the MVP race in 2020, but if he is as comfortable in Gruden’s offense as he says he is, and hits 4,500 yards, then he will certainly be in the conversation. Last year, Carr threw for over 4,000 and that was with limited weapons and a heavy focus on running the ball.
This year Carr and Gruden may decide to just let loose and let it rip with all of the weapons and speed on offense. Carr goes from a season with a hampered Tyrell Williams, a rookie slot wide receiver, and a Pro Bowl-caliber tight end, to a year with all of them healthy and one of the fastest wide receivers in the game in Henry Ruggs III, and a dangerous gadget player in Lynn Bowden Jr.
It may be too soon to call it an embarrassment of riches, but if all goes well, then it will be a giant leap from the skill position players in 2019 and Carr’s numbers could take a huge leap as a result. Those weapons are the second case for the over personified and if they are all healthy and at their best, then 4,500 yards is certainly a possibility.