Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos: How to Bet 2020 Week 10

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos: How to Bet 2020 Week 10

How to bet the Broncos at Raiders matchup

This week’s matchup against the Broncos is a tricky one. Denver is 4-5 in their last nine against the Raiders, while also being 12-5 in their last 17 meetings and 34-16 in their last 50. Not to mention the success they’ve had on the road being 5-4 in their last 9 at the Raiders and 16-9 in their last 25.

However, they’ve lost four-straight at the Raiders and are 25-36 all-time on the road in this rivalry.

Here’s where it gets even more complicated. The Raiders have covered 4.5 points in 44 of their 65 all-time wins over Denver, and also 27 of 36 at home. So, 68% of the time in this rivalry overall and 75% of the time at home, when the Raiders beat the Broncos, they cover 4.5 points.

Pretty good odds considering.

But when you compare that to the rest of the field of favorites this week (excluding the Colts who played on Thursday), Las Vegas is actually the 11th-most likely of 13 favorites to cover their spread this week since they rank 11th of 13 in both their overall win and cover percentage (68%) and home win and cover percentage (75%).

Considering every week so far this NFL season we have had at least eight underdogs cover their spread, the raiders rank pretty low on the totem pole compared to the rest of the favorites this week most likely to win and cover. But I just don’t feel right taking the plunge and ditching Las Vegas completely because the Broncos are extremely beat up on the offensive side of the ball.

They just came off a pretty embarrassing loss to the Falcons in a game they by all counts should have won, and now they come into Week 10 with Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Diontae Spencer all banged up in their receiving core.

The Raiders are probably going to be without their left tackle Kolton Miller this week (listed as doubtful) and the Broncos rank tied for 7th in football in sacks despite being short their best pass rusher Von Miller.

But other than that, Denver ranks pretty middle-of-the-road in almost every defensive category. And not only do they not take the ball away (not a great stat going against Derek Carr who’s protecting the ball pretty well this season), but they’re also 30th in the league this year in coughing up the football with 16 turnovers.

I feel like I can’t go against Las Vegas to win this game this week since the numbers are on their side for that. however, I’m going to split the baby and take them to win and the Broncos to cover because I can never trust this Raiders team to do what they’re supposed to do, and because the numbers also say this will be a close game that the Broncos might win. Denver covers as underdogs, something they’re 5-3 this year doing.

And as for the over/under, it’s not a complete slam dunk for the over. I have the Denver/LV game ranked as the 6th-most likely to go over this week. In 121 games of this rivalry, 34 of them have gone over 50.5 points (28%). 21 of 61 at the Raiders have gone over that as well (34%).

Not great odds. I’d be more comfortable if those percentages were deep into the 30s for any other regular spread, but considering the mark is over 50.5 points, the fact that 34% of the time at the Raiders and 28% overall these Bronco/Raider games go over such a mark is very encouraging.

I think this is a game that goes back and forth. Drew Lock finds ways to mitigate his banged up receiving core and Derek Carr pulls it out late, further making his dark horse MVP case and evening up his career record against the Broncos which currently sits at 5-6.

Prediction: Give me Las Vegas 31-27 in this game. Las Vegas moves to 6-3 even though that doesn’t quite seem right to me. Broncos take the +4.5 and the over 50.5 gets hit. I can’t quit these Raiders. They break my heart seemingly every week but I still come back for more. Not sorry.