Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs: How to bet 2020 Week 11
How to bet Raiders vs. Chiefs in Week 11
The last time I checked on the line for this game, it was the Chiefs favored by eight points with an over/under of 56.5. Pretty big spread and a very big total to eclipse.
Here’s why I think the Chiefs ultimately win this game, cover, and hit the under 56.5.
Eight points is a rather big margin to hit as a favorite, wouldn’t you agree? It also doesn’t swing me one way or the other knowing KC is 5-3 this year ATS as favorites, while the Raiders are 4-3 ATS as underdogs. I would say that tilts it in favor of the Raiders, personally.
But scavenging the history of Raiders-Chiefs, 37 of the Chiefs 67 career wins over the Raiders have covered 8 points (55%). When we look at Chiefs wins AT the Raiders, 15 of 31 of those covered eight points (48%).
As these percentages stack up against the rest of the field this week, I have the Chiefs as the 13th most likely favorite to cover their spread this week of 14 teams. However, the fact that more than half the time in overall games we have the Chiefs succeeding in winning by more than a touchdown is breathtaking.
So, even though the Chiefs’ chances of pulling this off aren’t as favorable as 12 other favorites’ chances this week, I can’t ignore a 55% success rate to cover 8 points.
That brings me to my last point in the over/under. 56.5 is a ton of points to get over. Yes, these teams went for 72 last time out, but when we look at the likelihood of over 56.5 getting hit, 13 (I repeat) 13 of 123 games overall between the Chiefs and Raiders in their long histories have gone over 56.5%. That’s 11%.
When those games are home games for the Raiders, 8 of 61 have gone over 56.5 (13%). The Titans-Ravens game this week has a lower chance of hitting over (believe it or not), but other than that, this game is clearly very unlikely to hit over 56.5. The Chiefs are also 3-6 this year at hitting overs.
And if we take into account the fact that Derek Carr has been game-managing the past three games, and the Chiefs are coming out of a bye with all those stats in their favor and the number one passing offense in football, it becomes pretty appetizing to me to lean on the under for this game since I don’t know for sure how “up for it” the Raiders are for a shootout this week.
So, I’m going to take the Chiefs in this game 33-20, covering the 8 points, and hitting the under 56.5.
I don’t necessarily see this being a defensive stalwart battle. Points will be put up. But I think they’re just going to fall short of that big total and the Chiefs are going to maintain control of this game through and through to make up for last game’s debacle.
If the Raiders go to 7-3, come to within one game of the Chiefs, and sweep Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, I don’t know what I’m going to do with myself. Can’t wait for a 45-41 Raiders victory, am I right?