4 reasons the Las Vegas Raiders will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12
4 reasons the Las Vegas Raiders will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12
Atlanta struggles to run the ball but the Raiders excel at it
The Falcons offense added former Georgia Bulldog Todd Gurley to the backfield and while Gurley has had a solid individual season, Atlanta has struggled to run the ball consistently. They are currently 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 101 per game and the advanced numbers suggest they may be even worse than that.
Yards before contact is a good measure of how well teams are blocking for their running backs and in the case of the Falcons, they are 28th in the NFL in that category at just 2.0 yards per carry. They are in the top-15 in the NFL in rushing attempts but in the bottom-10 in yards, so they struggle to make any real headway when running the ball. They have just 59 rushing first downs this year but do have 11 rushing touchdowns so when they get down around the goal-line they can still be dangerous on the ground.
Contrast this to the Raiders rushing attack that is 7th in rushing yards per game and are 7th in the NFL in yards before contact. The Raiders are in that 6-9 range in key categories like attempts, total yards, and rushing first downs which prove beyond the eye test that when they are focused on running the ball they excel at it.
The Falcons currently have the 9th best rush defense in terms of total yards but the numbers are deceiving because they have faced the 4th fewest rush attempts this season. When teams decide to run the ball against Atlanta they find success to the tune of 4.4 yards per carry.
Teams must be asking themselves why run the ball against the Falcons when it’s so easy to throw the ball against them? We won’t see Jon Gruden abandon the run anytime soon but he will know that he can put the game in Derek Carr’s hands against this woeful defense.