Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons: How to bet 2020 Week 12
Examining the Atlanta game
This game, to me, seems very much like it’s going to be a bit of a shootout. Both teams love to move the ball down the field. Josh Jacobs is a bit banged up, so the passing game for Las Vegas should be even more utilized than usual. Even with injuries stacked up for Atlanta, I can very easily see this game hitting over 53.5 points.
When we look at those dreaded numbers, 2-of-7 games at Atlanta in this series have gone over 53.5 (29%). Overall, games between these two have gone over 53.5 in 6 of 14 meetings (43%). Jones is out, and Ridley is nursing injuries, so that doesn’t bode well for this game to go over, but I think it’ll be back-and-forth because neither team plays a whole lot of defense does.
As for the spread, the Raiders have covered three points in 6-of-7 wins over the Falcons in their history (86%) and 3 of 3 wins in Atlanta.
I’m going against my gut in this one since my gut is usually wrong about the Raiders. They’ve lost four straight to the Falcons, they’re 3-6 in their last 9 against Atlanta, and 1-3 in their last 4 trips to the ATL. To put the cherry on top, Matt Ryan is 3-0 against the Raiders while Derek Carr is 0-1 against the Falcons.
But I’m going against all of that and saying the Raiders come through in this game 31-26. Give me the Raiders -3 and the over 53.5 to be just barely hit.
Las Vegas is 2-0 this year covering spreads as favorites and 8-2 in their games hitting overs. Plus, they’re 4-1 on the road straight up. I’m tossing aside all of those stats that say Atlanta wins this game and sticking to who I think the better team is.