Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers: How to bet 2020 Week 15

Do the Raiders beat the Chargers?

I like their chances better next week against the Dolphins even though they’re better than the Chargers, so I’m going to go with the upset in this game and take the Chargers to beat the Raiders. Yes, even though the Bolts haven’t beaten an AFC West opponent in nine games, and yes, even though they haven’t won back-to-back games this year.

I just don’t get the feeling from this Raiders team anymore that they’re playing with their edge like they were the first half of the season. I think they slip again this week and get beat by a high flying passing attack from Justin Herbert. They may have beaten the Bolts three straight times and in seven of their last 11 meetings, but they’ve also lost ten of 21, and 23 of 34 games overall to the Chargers, as well as 11 of 16 and 18 of 29 at home.

From a betting perspective, I have no geeky numbers to throw at you this week because being that this is the Thursday game, I didn’t have enough time to compare this week’s matchup percentages to that of the rest of the slate. All I really have is if the Raiders are going to win, there’s a good-to-fair chance they also cover three points. 50 of 66 wins over the Bolts have covered 3 points (76%), and when those wins come at home, that number drops to 22 of 32 covers of three points (69%).

There may have been a split of this game possible if I felt the Raiders were going to win, but since I have the Bolts, no split is necessary. The Raiders haven’t covered against the spread in their last three games, while the Bolts, on the other hand, broke a six-game stretch of failing to cover the spread, and they’re also 4-3 against the spread as underdogs.

Probably should be 5-2 if not for Anthony Lynn‘s poor play-calling down the stretch of the Buffalo game.

As for the over/under, 23 of 122 overall games between these two have gone over 53 points. That’s 19%. When those games are at home for the Raiders, we have 18 of 60 games going over 53, so it jumps up to 30%.

My feeling this week is that once again the Raiders are going to find themselves in a bit of a shootout. The last two weeks have been exactly that and why not this week as well with an opposing quarterback who’s going to throw the ball all over the field?

Raiders games have gone over in 10 of 13 weeks this year. So, give me the Chargers 34-28 in this game. I think Herbert gets the Raiders back for Week 9 and gets the Bolts into a late-season groove. It’s a risk. The Darren Waller domination factor is very much in play this week and that could carry the raiders, but I like the upset instead.