The Las Vegas Raiders were more aggressive on fourth down with Marcus Mariota, what was behind that shift in mentality?
The Las Vegas Raiders were more aggressive on fourth down with Marcus Mariota, ao we have to ask the question, what was behind that shift in mentality?
The Raiders and head coach Jon Gruden have been one of the more conservative teams in the NFL this season thanks to his old-school approach to football. While the rest of the NFL is spreading it out and running the ball less and less, Gruden is holding on to his principles of using the run to set up the pass.
Part of that approach comes with a tendency to not go for it on fourth down, and the numbers back it up for the Raiders. As of Week 15, the Raiders have gone for it on fourth down 17 times, but four of those attempts came on Thursday Night Football against the Chargers. Had the Raiders gone for it just once or twice that night, they would have been in the bottom-10 in the NFL in that category.
Of those 17 attempts, the Raiders have been successful 13 times, which puts them second in the NFL in that category behind the Miami Dolphins who only have six attempts on the year. There is no clear connection between going for it on fourth down and being a good team as we can see from the top-5 in that category this season, which includes the Eagles, Cowboys, Bengals, Colts, and Jaguars.
In fact, one could derive that the more you go for it on fourth down, the worse your team is.
The teams that are successful on fourth down, however, are generally contenders, as eight of the teams in the top-10 are .500 or better. So why have the Raiders not been going for it on fourth down and what changed on Thursday night against the Chargers?