Numbers say heavily that Miami wins this game
The Raiders have lost six of their last seven overall to the Dolphins, nine of their last 11, and 12 of their last 15. At home, they’ve lost six of their last seven to the Fins, although this time it will be under the bright lights of Las Vegas. Allegiant Stadium has not been kind to the Raiders this season, however, so how much of home-field advantage is it right now without fans?
The Dolphins are 5-1 this year against the spread as favorites and have covered three points in 15 of 18 wins over the Raiders in their history (83%). When those wins come at the Raiders, they’ve covered three points in 7-of-7 (100%). So, for those of you out there that are hell-bent on Miami winning this game, if they’re going to win it, they’re probably going to cover three points too.
That 83% success rate in covers ranks fifth among the 16 favorites this week in the league. If we look back on the past six weeks, the fifth ranked favorite in this same category covered their spread in 4-of-6 weeks.
When we look back on the past three weeks, the fifth-ranked favorite covered 2/3.
That 100% success rate in covers ranks third amongst the 16 favorites after Washington and the Colts get tiebreakers over Miami. The third-ranked favorite has covered in 3-of-6 weeks if we look back that far. If we look back only three weeks, that third-ranked favorite covered in 3-of-3 weeks.
When we average those two rankings, the Fins come out as the third most likely favorite to cover this week. Looking six weeks back, the third most likely favorite covered in 3-fo-6 weeks. Looking back only three weeks, the third most likely covered in 2-of-3 weeks.
Then we can look at patterns and see the Fins have won eight of their last ten this year outright, and have also gone 9-1 against the spread in that timeframe, while the Raiders are 1-4 in their last five outright and 0-4 in their last four against the spread.
BUT, I maintain that the Raiders will finish 8-8 this season (one game better than 2019) and lose next week at Denver. That means they win this week against the Dolphins.