Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: How to bet 2020 Week 17
By Sean Basile
How to bet Raiders at Denver, 2020 Week 17
Maybe I’m wrong. The Raiders, when they beat Denver, cover 2.5 points about 92% of the time overall and 90% of the time in Denver, so the odds are a Raiders win here probably means they cover 2.5 points as well, though, we did just see what the Dolphins did last week in that regard.
As for the over/under, only 28% of games between these two have gone over 50.5 points.
Games at Denver have gone over even fewer times at 22%; a whopping 13 of 60 games went over 50.5 at Denver in this matchup.
But the Raiders are the best team in football this year at hitting the over in their games, as they are 12-3, and when we look back on the past three weeks, their comparison to the other 15 games this week based on their rates of hitting the over in their matchup actually suggests that the over is pretty heavily supported by the numbers. This game ranks 13th in overall over percentage and the past three weeks have seen the 13th ranked game go over 3/3 times.
It ranks 13th in over percentage based on the location of the game and the past three weeks have seen that 13th ranked game go over 2/3 times. And when we average it out, this game is the 13th most likely game to go over and that game once again did so 2/3 times. I think the Raiders have a good offensive game here, led by Derek Carr, but ultimately the Broncos will simply be better.
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Denver’s momentum trumps Vegas’ in a big way and their pass rush is going to be the deciding factor against a very beat up Raider O-line.
Give me the Broncos in this game, 31-27 with the over 50.5 also being a winner. Denver closes decently strong and has to make a decision on Drew Lock very soon, while the Raiders lose again and have to make several key decisions by Draft Day.