The Las Vegas Raiders take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14, and here is why an upset is certainly possible for the Silver and Black.
I know, I know, I know!
Right now, the last thing Las Vegas Raiders fans want to hear is that they’ve got a chance this upcoming week against the Chiefs after that embarrassing performance and loss to the Washington Football Team.
There’s a very slim chance I’ll pick the Raiders in this game myself, but let me try to make a case as to why it’s not completely out of the question that the black and silver will pull off such a massive upset at this point in the year. If there’s one thing I’m sure I know about these Raiders, it’s that I’m sure I know nothing at all about these Raiders when it comes down to it.
After covering them for three years, it is clear to me that they are simply a team that does whatever the opposite of normal is in any given week. Down to the tee, the Raiders win games they are not supposed to win and lose games they’re not supposed to lose.
Case in point, just last week they were the favorites against Washington and they played one of the worst games they’ve played all year. Another case in point- Thanksgiving Day, they were up against a much better Cowboys team and they managed to win an overtime shootout.
Raiders are a team where the unexpected should be expected
This kind of thing occurs weekly. They’ve only had two “normal” results all year and those were the Eagles win and Chargers loss. With every other game, they either won games they were supposed to get shelled (Ravens, Steelers, Broncos, Dolphins, and Cowboys), embarrassingly lost games they were supposed to win (Bears, Giants, Bengals, and Washington), or they got dominated in a game where they were supposed to at least be competitive (the first Chiefs game).
Normal-looking results are not in the Raiders’ forte. So why should this week be any different?
They already got demolished by the Chiefs once this year and all the historical numbers put the Raiders miles behind this surging Chiefs team. Doesn’t every arrow pointing towards KC in this week’s matchup mean only one thing that the Raiders are destined to come out and pull off a major upset?
Here’s one thing to keep an eye on with this game that quietly favors the Raiders to pull off the miracle…
The Chiefs have not split any game this year in outrights and spreads. They have either won outright and covered the spread, or lost outright and lost the spread. No in-between. No winning outright and losing the coverage. At least that’s the conclusion I’ve come to in how I keep track of my lines.
Now, the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites in this game and that may be tweaked a bit depending on where you look. Until this point, the Chiefs have gone 5-7 against the spread as favorites this year and are coming off a spread victory just last week against Denver.
They have notoriously been a bad spread team at least dating back to last season. I have them at 5-7 this year (all as favorites) and 6-10 last year (5-9 as favorites and 1-1 as dogs). Perhaps that’s a game or two off depending on who you talk to.
They have also only covered 9.5 points in wins against the Raiders in 38 of 69 victories (55%). Still pretty good for such a big mark to cover, but there is obviously a lot of wiggle room there for the Raiders to slip in with a cover.
If the Raiders can indeed cover a big point spread against a notoriously bad cover team in KC, wouldn’t that put them in prime position to win it outright just as the Chiefs have not split a game all year?
I think we’re in for a very intriguing game that could have a statistically unique result if we can get a Chiefs to win and Raiders cover.
The Raiders might just be able to beat the odds entirely and move to 7-6 on the year.
Only time will tell.