The Las Vegas Raiders have a big decision to make when it comes to Josh Jacobs, and here, we look at what could potentially happen.
Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs ran himself into what is expected to be a pretty hefty payday this coming season. After the Raiders declined to pick up his 5th year option, which would have paid him $8 million in 2023, the 4th year running back went out and got himself an NFL rushing title.
Jacobs ended the year with 1,653 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, and 2,053 all-purpose yards which put him atop the list for running backs. It also added him to the list with only one other running back, Marcus Allen, for Raiders to lead the league in rushing.
There is a lot the Raiders need to figure out in regard to whether they want to bring Jacobs back. Given the recent situation with Derek Carr all but finalized, the Raiders have saved themselves $30+ million and thus have more money they can allocate to such a situation.
These days it seems like figuring out the quarterback situation is the biggest concern for the Raiders. As much as I believe that is the case, I am confident they have an avenue in which they are headed to find a solution. Regardless of who is behind center though, this offense will look drastically different if Josh Jacobs is not in it.
While I do believe he will still be in a Raiders uniform come training camp, the question of the contract is going to be the tricky part. Let’s dive into the options the Raiders have and what a potential contract might look like.
Las Vegas Raiders: Predicting a potential Josh Jacobs contract
Tag or Bag?
One route the Raiders could go would be to franchise tag Jacobs. Franchise tagging involves a one-year contract that pays the player either the average of the top-5 contracts at their respective position or 120% of their previous contract, whichever is more. According to Over the Cap, the projected franchise tag for a running back is $10.1 million for 2023.
As previously mentioned, the Raiders passed up on the 5th-year option that would’ve paid him $8 million for the 2023 season. With the ability to slap Jacobs with the franchise tag, you could say that the Raiders were taking a $2 million gamble by declining the option.
Ideally, signing him to a long-term contract is what many in Raider Nation would prefer, but the tag would give the Raiders time to negotiate the right contract without feeling the pressure of free agency and other teams trying to outbid them.
We’ve seen instances where players have held out and not signed their franchise tag because they wanted the big payday. Most notably at the running back position was Le’Veon Bell back in 2018 when he sat out the entire season after the Steelers placed the franchise tag on him. Most recently, new Raiders WR Davante Adams refused to play on the franchise tag in Green Bay before being traded to Las Vegas.
There is always a chance Jacobs holds out in order to get an immediate payday. For someone who has made just over $11 million in four years, I highly doubt he would do that, especially knowing that it was done in order to have more time to work out a deal that makes sense for both sides. Jacobs has expressed that he wants to stay with Las Vegas and the Raiders seem to reciprocate the sentiment.
I see a deal getting done one way or another, when exactly it comes will be the question mark. If it’s later rather than sooner, look for the franchise tag to come out quickly.
Las Vegas Raiders: Predicting a potential Josh Jacobs contract
Long Term Contract
The second option would be inking him to a long-term contract that many think he rightfully deserves. Throughout Jacobs’s four-year career with the Raiders, he’s shown that he has the potential to be one of the best running backs in the NFL. In the 2022 season, we saw that potential come to fruition.
But where does he fall in regard to getting paid with the best of them? Will he garner the top contract at his position or settle himself amongst the top 5?
Currently, Christian McCaffrey sits atop the running back class for highest-paid players at $16 million AAV. Right behind him are Ezekiel Elliot and Alvin Kamara both at $15 million AAV. After that, you have the next five players all falling within a $12-$12.6 million annually and that’s where I believe Josh Jacobs will find himself, just above that threshold.
I feel like his contract will most resemble what Dalvin Cook was given. Cook received a 5-year, $63 million contract with $28 million guaranteed. That put him as the top-paid running back at the time with $12.6 million AAV. The construction of the contract is more why I believe Jacobs will be similar. Cook saw $16 million guaranteed at signing. Which means only $12 million was spread out through the next five years.
That helps keep the cap number down on average and the Vikings also had an out after year 3 that essentially turned the contract into 3-year $27 million if in fact he didn’t live up to it.
I don’t know if I see the Raiders giving him that long of a deal, especially with the way running backs are valued now a days. Getting the bag is usually what’s more important and a lot of players and agents might not hate the idea of a shorter contract in hopes of getting another at the end of it.
Las Vegas Raiders: Predicting a potential Josh Jacobs contract
The Prediction
- Projected Salary: 4 years, $52 million, $30 million guaranteed
This contract puts him 4th overall in average annual value at $13 million and top-5 in guaranteed money. We could see the same $15-$17 million guaranteed at signing and the rest spread out intermittently.
They could also structure it to have an out after two years, potentially with most of his guarantees within that time. We could see $22-$25 million in the first two years, which would equate to an AAV of $11-$12.5 million (depending on roster bonus, performance bonus, etc.) with little to no cap hit on the back end of the deal if things don’t work out.
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He gets most or all of his money upfront, the Raiders can get out below his regular price or have a back half of the contract that is more team-friendly. Win-Win for both parties.
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