Las Vegas Raiders: What will Derek Carr be worth in free agency?
Las Vegas Raiders: What will Derek Carr be worth in free agency?
The Prediction
It’s weird to try and predict the market value for a quarterback that is still under contract. What is interesting is that there is arguably the same amount of issues outside his control as inside, that has attributed to Carr’s lack of success. By that very nature, Carr’s current contract could be seen as quite the deal if in fact, the Raiders struggles didn’t reside on his shoulders.
I don’t believe he’ll warrant where he sits currently though. That in itself poses the question of why he wouldn’t accept a trade, but I think the two big reasons are that the Saints were the only ones interested and they wanted him to take a pay cut. I also think that because he doesn’t have any guaranteed money, the $40 million AAV isn’t as enticing seeing as how it’s all conditional.
The big question will be how many people are interested. We know the Saints are, but could they withstand a bidding war with say the Panthers or the Jets. I wouldn’t be surprised if some team was forced to give him what he currently has just because there was enough interest from multiple teams.
But I think if teams weren’t interested in trading for him and that contract without any guarantees, they aren’t going to want to give him that same contract along with guaranteed money involved.
- Predicted Contract: 4 years $150 million, $120 million guaranteed ($90MM fully)
- Average Annual Value: $37.5 million
I think we will see a contract similar to Matthew Stafford. I think you see teams offer him a lower AAV, but with more guaranteed money involved. If they were smart they’d make it production based as well because the jury is still out on whether it was outside factors around him or not, keeping him from taking that next step to be considered amongst the elites.
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