A surprising 3-0 start to the season for the Las Vegas Raiders has become a 3-2 mark now, but the two setbacks couldn't have been any different. A good effort against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4 was followed by a Week 5 dud against the New England Patriots, and there's no let-up in the schedule.
The Raiders will welcome the 4-1 Buffalo Bills to town on Sunday. Seeing Buffalo as a 5.5-point favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook feels light, but the Bills are on a short week and they also went to overtime last Monday night.
Last week's loss to the Patriots is the kind of game the Raiders can't let follow them into subsequent games. What's done is done, and the upcoming schedule is tough enough without that. Even if they lose to the Bills, a competitive effort would bring the positive vibes back.
If the Raiders are going to have a chance to send the Bills back East with a loss, these three individual matchups will have to be won.
3 matchups that will determine the Raiders' chances to upset the Bills in Week 6
Raiders DE Maxx Crosby vs. Whoever the Bills' RT is
Tabbing Maxx Crosby as a key to a Raiders' victory, upset or otherwise, is obvious. But he also has just a half-sack over the last four games, and it's not an issue of winning often enough with 22 pressures over that span according to Pro Football Focus (19 over the last three games).
If Bills right tackle Spencer Brown is able to go on Sunday after leaving Week 5 with a back injury, he will be Crosby's primary foe.
Brown enters Week 6 ninth among offensive tackles in ESPN pass block win rate. PFF is not nearly as high on his work as a pass blocker, with the 53rd-best pass blocking grade out of 70 qualified offensive tackles. but his run blocking grade is top-20 at the position.
If Brown can't go on Sunday, or ends up leaving the game, Tylan Grable would step in. His 47 snaps at right tackle after Brown's exit in Week 5 were his first snaps at the position in three NFL seasons, and first snaps at the position since he played two snaps in 2020 at UCF.
Getting after Bills' quarterback Josh Allen effectively on Sunday starts with Crosby, and he'll also be key in the effort to stifle running back James Cook. He'll either have an equal foe or an experience mismatch across from it at right tackle, and "Mad Maxx" has to noticeably win throughout the game either way.
Whichever Raiders CB is covering him vs. Bills WR Keon Coleman
The status of Bills' No. 1 wide receiver DJ Moore is up in the air after he opened the week not participating in practice on Wednesday. Even if he is able to play on Sunday, he might still be limited by a shoulder injury.
Keon Coleman has been a massive underachiever thus far in his career, and with Moore out against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5 he needed a touchdown to save his day on the stat sheet. Coleman drew a pass interference penalty in the game, and if Bills quarterback Josh Allen had made a less careless throw on a deep ball late in the first half it could've been a big gain.
The Raiders' cornerbacks have been struggling in recent weeks. Coleman (6-foot-3) is a size mismatch the Bills surely intend to exploit on Sunday, and the impact he has may not be fully reflected in catches and yards if Raiders' corners get a little grabby.
Spencer Burford (or whoever the starting LG is) vs. Bills DT Deone Walker
To say Spencer Burford has not been very good so far this season is a massive understatement. There's also no easy way to replace him as the starting left guard right now, despite Klint Kubiak hinting at offensive line changes this week, with second-year man Caleb Rogers working at right guard thus far in his NFL career.
Ed Oliver is the big name in the Bills' starting defensive tackle duo, but Deone Walker has been a stud so far this season with the third-most quarterback pressures at the position entering Week 6 (21, per PFF).
Walker has split time almost equally at the left and right defensive tackle spots this season, but targeting Burford would seem to be a top priority for the Bills defensive front. And if Oliver is out or at all limited as he battles a knee issue, Walker might line up against Burford almost exclusively.
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