In a battle between undefeated AFC West teams, the Las Vegas Raiders will host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4. In four of the previous five matchups, the Raiders either beat the Chiefs or lost by one possession. So, this game could go down to the wire once again.
The Raiders have relied heavily on the ground game, though Brock Bowers' return from injury has balanced their offensive attack. First-time defensive coordinator Rob Leonard has instilled an aggressive identity on his side of the ball.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have transitioned to a run-heavy offense. With those major factors in mind, here are three predictions for the Raiders' Week 4 matchup. Last week's predictions went 3-0, in case you were wondering.
Raiders-Chiefs will be a physical battle in which the winning team dominates at the line of scrimmage
Raiders allow 100-plus rushing yards
Let's start with the biggest concern from the Raiders' perspective. Although the defense has made significant strides in the pass rush, ranking second across the league with a 36.3% pressure rate, the unit must tighten up against the run.
Las Vegas allowed 127 rushing yards to a directionless Los Angeles Chargers offense in Week 2 and 148 yards on the ground to the pass-happy New Orleans Saints, who had their best rushing output last week.
It's fair to question whether the Raiders have adequately patched up their run defense since it became a glaring issue in the preseason. Now, they have to slow down league-leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who's averaging 120 rushing yards per game.
Kubiak knows Walker well from their time with the Seattle Seahawks last year, but he's not responsible for tackling him on the field. The Raiders' front seven can't let Walker wear them down, but it'll be tough to stop a ground attack that's racked up 119 yards in back-to-back outings.
Mike Washington Jr. logs 10 or more carries
Ashton Jeanty was back on the injury report for Week 4 after not appearing on it last week. He's been a full participant in practices and hasn't missed a game, but Las Vegas Sports Network's Brandy Flores noted that the second-year tailback needed his ankle taped up last week.
Don't expect Jeanty or the coaching staff to use injuries as an excuse for subpar play, but watch for any adjustments.
Early this week, Kubiak told reporters that rookie running back Mike Washington Jr. has earned more touches. In Week 3, he logged five carries for 54 yards and a touchdown. Lately, he's been more explosive on the ground than Jeanty, who averaged fewer than three yards per carry in his last two outings.
Although Jeanty is the Raiders' featured tailback, don't be surprised if Kubiak splits the workload 6-40 between his top two ball-carriers on Sunday. In a competitive game, Washington could handle 10 or more carries as Las Vegas matches Kansas City's ground attack.
Malcolm Koonce records a sack in third consecutive game
Malcolm Koonce leads the Raiders with 2.5 sacks. He logged one in consecutive weeks and could keep that streak alive in a favorable matchup against backup left tackle Kahlil Benson.
According to Pro Football Focus, Benson has allowed nine pressures this season, which is more than twice the number for right tackle Jaylon Moore, who's second on the team in pressures (four) allowed.
Leonard must exploit a glaring weakness on quarterback Patrick Mahomes' blind side to neutralize the passing game. With Kwity Paye on that side, the Raiders can also take away Walker's cutback lanes in the Chiefs' run game.
Nonetheless, Koonce's re-emergence as a difference-maker in the pass rush could force Mahomes into mistakes as he tries to escape pocket pressure. The sixth-year pro could wreak more havoc on the edge Sunday.
Moe Moton writes about the Raiders for Just Blog Baby. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.
Add us as a preferred source on Google