The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off their first loss of the season against the Kansas City Chiefs, 30-27. The media has seen it as a moral victory, and while it is nice to earn some notoriety, it was still an incredibly crushing loss for the fan base against a bitter division rival.
Raider Nation saw the defense have leaky moments throughout the game, giving up big plays to a high-powered Chiefs offense. The Las Vegas offense held its own, and the game came down to the last moments before Kirk Cousins threw an interception. This was a tightly contested battle.
With the New England Patriots coming up next, there is no rest for the weary. So, as we do every week, let's dive deep into the analytics that decided the Week 4 matchups.
Week 4 advanced stats easily explain how Raiders came up short vs. Chiefs
Rob Leonard's aggressive play style comes back to bite him
During the first three games of the season, the Raiders have blitzed at a high level. They have created turnovers by deploying extra rushers with exotic stunts and pressures that confuse quarterbacks. That is Leonard's preferred style of play, and it has worked so far.
But on Sunday, while the blitzes were effective, they led to explosive plays for the Chiefs.
The Raiders may have wished they could get some of their Cover 0 calls back against Mahomes.
— Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) October 5, 2026
Three pivotal Cover 0 moments in the game:
41 yard completion to Worthy (10.6% win probability added)
2 yard TD to Thornton (5.6% win probability added)
55 yard completion to Thornton…
Leonard leads the NFL in calling cover 0 at 9% of the Raiders' coverage snaps. However, this week it got them burned on deep passes. The Chiefs' biggest passing plays of the day came off these aggressive blitzes against one of the league's best quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes.
The blitzes' impact on win probability shows that, against certain quarterbacks, it may be time to dial it down. With Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford on the horizon, Leonard could play more conservatively against them to prevent game-altering plays.
Kirk Cousins struggled in the intermediate passing game
Cousins struggled throwing downfield in Week 1, but Weeks 2 and 3 were a different story. He attacked downfield and intermediate routes with precision, leading to big plays for the offense. On Sunday, fans saw a regression back to Week 1.
The Raiders' starting quarterback was 4-for-11 for 64 yards and an interception while throwing 11-to-19 air yards. It was worse outside the numbers, with Cousins going 0-for-4. The Chiefs played a defensive scheme that dictated how Cousins would play, and it showed up in the advanced stats.
Hopefully, Cousins can bounce back this week against the Patriots and match the numbers he averaged over the previous two weeks.
Run game continues to struggle
What was supposed to be improved this offseason is still a struggle after four weeks. The Raiders' run game has been inadequate, to say the least, and it is leading to both Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. getting hit in the backfield consistently.
Percentage of runs with 0 or fewer yards before contact through Week 4
— Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) October 6, 2026
1.) Rams: 32.6%
2.) Bengals: 35.6%
3.) Bears: 36.6%
4.) Panthers: 36.8%
5.) Bills: 36.9%
6.) 49ers: 37.2%
7.) Lions: 39.1%
8.) Falcons: 40.0%
9.) Broncos: 41.6%
10.) Jets: 42.0%
11.) Giants: 42.1%
12.)…
After Week 4, the Raiders are 30th in the NFL in percentage of runs that have contact before the line of scrimmage. While it isn't all on the offensive line, as they rank 12th in the NFL in run-block win rate, some of it has to do with the scheme overall.
Klint Kubiak mentioned this at his press conference on Wednesday.
It can be an easy fix if it's scheme-related, since Kubiak adjusted last season with the Seattle Seahawks. Hopefully, the Raiders can do the same in 2026.
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