Ashton Jeanty was a first-round pick for any fantasy football manager who took him in a draft this year. Through three weeks, he was a major disappointment, though not all his fault. A touchdown in Week 1 kept him in the top-30 fantasy running backs, but he was not reliable on a weekly basis.
Week 4 against the awful run defense of the Chicago Bears was a "now or never" game for Jeanty. Not only did he have 138 yards on 21 carries, highlighted by a 64-yard touchdown run, but he also had two red zone receiving touchdowns from eight and nine yards out.
He finished as the top-scoring fantasy football running back for the week, regardless of scoring format. This dominant breakout performance landed him on some favorable lists after Week 4.
Ashton Jeanty's outlook for the rest of the season is harsh news for his fantasy managers
Beckett Mesko of Pro Football Focus, of course, had Jeanty's strong showing against the Bears on his list of boom-or-bust fantasy performances to consider the implications of moving forward.
"As fun as Jeanty's breakout was, concerns remain going forward. The Raiders' offensive line managed to take advantage of a weak Bears run defense, but the unit is still extremely shaky. Las Vegas is fielding the 26th-ranked offensive line by PFF overall grade and the 24th-ranked unit by PFF run-defense grade," Mesko wrote. "Temperature Check: RB1 with boom potential in good matchups; RB2 otherwise."
The Raiders' offensive line took a significant hit coming out of the game against the Bears. Left tackle Kolton Miller suffered what has since been revealed to be a hairline fracture in his ankle, and he is going to miss at least the next four games as he goes on IR.
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Miller has been the Raiders' best offensive lineman, so his absence will hurt the entire offense. But in light of what Mesko wrote in his "temperature check," let's look at Jeanty's fantasy matchups from here on out this season. In the numerical rankings, 1 is the easiest matchup and 32 is the toughest.
Week 5: Indianapolis Colts (25th)
Week 6: Tennessee Titans (4th)
Week 7: Kansas City Chiefs (9th)
Week 8: Bye
Week 9: Jacksonville Jaguars (24th)
Week 10: Denver Broncos (22nd)
Week 11: Dallas Cowboys (6th)
Week 12: Cleveland Browns (30th)
Week 13: Los Angeles Chargers (31st)
Week 14: Denver Broncos (22nd)
Week 15: Philadelphia Eagles (11th)
Week 16: Houston Texans (18th)
Week 17: New York Giants (5th)
Based on PFF's Strength of Schedule calculation entering Week 5, the Raiders have the worst remaining schedule for running backs. The Browns in Week 12 and the Chargers in Week 13 are especially ill-timed rough matchups, because those are the waning weeks of the regular season in most fantasy leagues.
With a rough rest of season outlook, without even accounting for Miller's absence, Jeanty's fantasy fortunes will be buoyed by his talent and what should be robust touch volume each and every week.
Boom games like Jeanty had in Week 4 are never easily repeated, but there are worse things than having a weekly RB2 floor like Mesko professed. It's just not where most expectations were for Jeanty entering the season, and it lands disappointingly for those who invested a lofty fantasy draft pick in him.