While the Las Vegas Raiders certainly have tools at their disposal to evaluate kickers that go beyond makes and misses, there is a complete void of information on that front for fans. So, while it was clear this preseason that Matt Gay won the kicking job, Raider Nation still didn't know exactly how to feel.
In some ways, fans still yearned for Daniel Carlson to make his return, as unquantifiable confidence has gone a long way in kicker support in the past. Gay also took his lumps in camp, and Kansei Matsuzawa, the "Tokyo Toe," who was great in college and is a heartwarming story, looked shaky.
But FanSided's Adam Fromal has revolutionized kicker assessment in a way that is palatable for fans with his proprietary stat, Kicker Value Added (KVA). KVA measures "how much value a kicker actually adds (or costs) relative to league expectations from the same distances across the field."
Effectively, not all makes and misses are created equal, and volume matters. This comprehensive new kicking stat gave credence to the Raiders moving on from Carlson earlier this offseason, and now it's proving that, contrary to popular belief, Las Vegas does not have a Matt Gay problem. At all.
Raiders' Matt Gay silenced the doubters during the preseason
Fromal dove into every single kick from the preseason (yes, all 381 combined field goals and extra points) and found that Gay actually performed quite well. Of the 42 kickers who attempted a field goal or extra point in August, Gay came in at No. 15 with a KVA of 1.31.
"Apparently, a reunion with special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis was exactly what the doctor ordered for Matt Gay. He sat at No. 32 in my preseason kicker rankings, but that was before he went 5-of-6 on his attempts for the Las Vegas Raiders, only missing from 54. Though Gay still has a long climb before he sits in a more reliable tier, he left no doubt he should have at least a medium-length leash in 2026."
If Gay continues to rank in the top half of the league, then the Raiders should have zero problems on their hands. Of course, the regular season is a different beast than the preseason, but Gay is a veteran who has serious skins on the wall at this level. Most importantly, his leg is in a good spot.
Notably, Gay just edged out Carlson in this metric, as the now-New Orleans Saints kicker was No. 16. But according to Fromal, Carlson's makes weren't exactly pretty, and he didn't have as high a volume as Gay. So, for the time being, let's not worry too much about the kicking situation in Las Vegas.
Going off the KVA stats, an upgrade isn't really available for the Silver and Black anyway. Plus, what may be immeasurable is the synergy that a kicker and a familiar special teams coordinator have. And Gay has that with DeCamillis, so let's not rock the boat unless it's wholly necessary.
Just how bad was it for Raiders' Kansei Matsuzawa?
In all honesty, it may not take an advanced kicking metric to understand that missing every single attempt is bad. Between a whiffed 38-yarder, two extra points outside the uprights and a landing zone violation (which doesn't factor into KVA), Matsuzawa had a really rough go of things this summer.
Of the 42 kickers that participated this preseason, Matsuzawa had the second-worst KVA at -4.49. If it weren't for an uncharacteristically bad stretch from Jason Meyers, or if Matsuzawa had attempted more field goals, then the Tokyo Toe may have been at the very bottom of the barrel.
For what it's worth, the leadership in Las Vegas still seems to believe in him. Sure, his being a part of the International Player Pathway and having a practice squad exemption makes it easier to justify keeping him around, but John Spytek didn't seem too down on the rookie after a rough preseason.
"We obviously knew from the start [that] this was a developmental player, and he's fairly new to the kicking game, and we saw a lot of quality work from Kansei [Matsuzawa] in practice. You all probably saw some of it too in some of the special teams periods," Spytek told the media. "He kicked well, and so the next step is obviously when the bright lights are on, and it really matters. ... We like the worker. We like how dedicated he is to his craft, and we're excited to keep working with him."
Matsuzawa has a long way to go, but the accuracy and unflappability that he showed at the University of Hawai'i are still in there somewhere. With Gay kicking at the level that he currently is, there's zero need to rush Matsuzawa's development. Let him learn, and let Gay cook this season in Las Vegas.
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