It may not have been mathematically official until a couple of weeks ago, but the Las Vegas Raiders had essentially been eliminated from the playoffs since before Halloween. Being a fan of the Silver and Black over the past two decades has meant clinging to hope for a better future that never comes.
In recent years, the Raiders have been bad enough to land a top-five pick in the draft. But with some ill-timed late-season wins, they've lacked the requisite number of losses to get there, which has set the franchise back even further.
With a 2-11 record right now, and only one game left that could realistically be a win (Week 17 against the New York Giants), Las Vegas might finally be in line to get a draft pick that fully befits their ineptitude.
After their Week 14 loss to the Denver Broncos, the Raiders would hold the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft if it were held this week. Of course, it isn't being held this week, and the final four weeks of the regular season will have a big say in how the top few picks end up being arranged.
But in a broad sense, losses to the 3-10 Cleveland Browns and the 3-10 Washington Commanders this season will help the Raiders' first pick in April be as early as it can be. Losing to the Giants in a couple of weeks would be very helpful, but let's not talk about that dreaded "T" word.
The dream scenario for Raiders' fans is very much in play
According to ESPN's Seth Walder, the Raiders currently have a 38 percent chance to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026. That's the best by a fair margin, with the Tennessee Titans coming in second with a 23.7 percent chance.
The Athletic also currently has the Raiders with the best chance to get the top overall pick in next April's draft after Week 14, with a 44 percent chance and an even wider margin over the second-best Titans, who sit at 21 percent.
In the wake of how things went on Sunday of Week 14, with the Titans beating the Browns, which particularly shifted things toward the Raiders in terms of the No. 1 overall pick next year, ESPN's Dan Graziano assessed the following in his "overreaction"/"not an overreaction" piece for the week.
Fernando Mendoza will be the Raiders' quarterback next season
"Mendoza is the man of the hour in college football after leading Indiana to the Big Ten title over Ohio State and claiming the No. 1 seed in the upcoming College Football Playoff. He has been impressing scouts all season, and while it's still too early to have any idea how the draft will shake out, there's a chance he emerges as the preferred option among the QB-needy teams at the top of the draft.
"A lackluster loss to the Broncos on Sunday has the Raiders at 2-11, tied with the Titans and the Giants for the worst record in the league. We presume the Titans and Giants will not be in the market for quarterbacks in the 2026 draft after selecting their current starters in April."
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So, with the latter point in mind, Graziano deemed the idea that Mendoza will be the Raiders' quarterback next season as "not an overreaction."
"I mean, why not? The Geno Smith experiment obviously hasn't gone as planned, and it's entirely possible the Raiders will have another new head coach again in 2026 as they embark upon yet another rebuilding project. Smith got injured Sunday amid a miserable season, and while he's under contract for next year and guaranteed $18.5 million, the Raiders could well decide to move on from Smith or relegate him to a backup role, especially if they're in position to draft a rookie they believe could be their franchise guy.
"I'm not a scout, and I'm not here to say Mendoza is going to be that. But you get the picture. This same blurb could have been written with 'Browns' or 'Jets' instead of 'Raiders,' but the Raiders have the worst record of those three, so here we are."
If the Giants or the Titans end up earning the top pick over them, the Raiders wouldn't necessarily need the first pick to land Mendoza. No. 2, where they currently are, could do just fine. If the Titans and Giants earn the first two picks, the Raiders could sit at No. 3 and still have their shot at him.
There is still a chance that a team with multiple first-round picks, like the Browns, Jets or Los Angeles Rams, could trade up and leapfrog Las Vegas for a quarterback if the Silver and Black do not get the top overall pick. That would be more reason for them to ensure that they are atop the draft board.
Nothing fuels hope for fans quite like a highly-drafted quarterback, and that dream is firmly alive for Raider Nation. Only a run of wins that this year's team doesn't seem to have in them would crush that dream.
But this fan base is used to being let down, so rattling off a handful of meaningless wins would be just the kind of parting gift that Pete Carroll would leave behind as he moves toward being one-and-done.