There is no single problem that yields a 4-13 season, and that was the obvious case for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2024. Their rushing attack was the worst in the league by a substantial margin, their quarterback play was subpar and the defense was generally overmatched far too often.
Starting at the top, with the hiring of Pete Carroll as head coach, the Raiders are on a better track now. It remains to be seen if they can gain ground in a difficult AFC West, but the Silver and Black should be far more competitive even if a serious push for a playoff spot is likely another year away.
ESPN's Bill Barnwell has the Raiders on his list of teams that are most likely to improve during the 2025 NFL season. He noted the easiest ways to improve, which the Raiders did by hiring Carroll and trading for Geno Smith. Drafting Ashton Jeanty to upgrade the running back situation is also a point in the Raiders' corner for Barnwell.
Bill Barnwell uncovers simple path to Raiders' improvement in 2025
Last season, the Raiders were in the bottom half of the league with 10 interceptions, and they had the fourth-fewest takeaways with 13. So, as an easy correlation, they were tied for second-worst in turnover margin at -16. If those numbers feel ripe for some correction, Barnwell dove into that idea.
"There are two numbers I'd use as strong indicators for the Raiders to improve. One is their turnover margin, which wasn't good. Their minus-16 mark ranked tied for 31st, as only the Browns (minus-22) were worse. Teams with terrible turnover margins often regress back toward the mean the following season," Barnwell wrote. "Since 1990, adjusting for the 17-game schedule, there have been 42 teams that posted a turnover margin in the minus-20 to minus-15 range. The following season, their turnover margin was collectively plus-2; in other words, they were almost exactly league average. Those teams improved their win total by an average of 2.5 victories per 17 games."
As he teased, Barnwell had another number the Raiders should experience some notable correction in this year.
"The other number I'll use as an indicator for the Raiders: an almost pathological inability to recover fumbles. Despite being coached by a former linebacker, the Raiders couldn't fall on the football to save their lives (or their season)," Barnwell wrote. "They picked up just eight of the 33 fumbles in their games, yielding a paltry recovery rate of 24.2%. That's the second-worst mark for any team in any season going back to 1991, ahead of only the 2011 Steelers (24.1%)."
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While the team certainly had their share of shortcomings in 2024, Barnwell noted that some of the Raiders' troubles were simply bad luck.
"There simply aren't many teams as unlucky as the 2024 Raiders here. But even if we include the 30 teams since 1991 that recovered no more than 35% of the fumbles in their games, I can project improvement: Those teams recovered 51.6% of the fumbles in their collective games the following season, and their record improved by two wins per 17 games," Barnwell noted.
Taking Barnwell's data together, the Raiders would project to win 4.5 more games this season based simply on expected turnover margin correction and better luck with fumble recoveries. That'd put them at eight or nine wins, roughly doubling last year's win total.
In Year 1 of the Carroll era, that would be a nice step toward relevance.