When the Las Vegas Raiders brought in Pete Carroll, Geno Smith and Chip Kelly this offseason, both the organization and fan base felt like they dramatically raised their floor. No longer would the Raiders be a distant bottom of the barrel in the AFC West; they had the proper pieces to compete.
Well, that ship sailed a long, long time ago. Whether it was the Week 3 blowout loss to a backup quarterback, a 40-6 defeat at the hands of the AFC's best team, or a 31-0 shellacking against a .500 opponent, it is clear that Las Vegas is still light-years away from being a threat in the AFC.
At this point, the franchise's sights should be firmly set on the future, and young players should be getting an opportunity. While those in the locker room are still fighting tooth and nail for every win, Raider Nation has largely checked out and begun focusing on their position in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Raiders' Week 12 tanking guide could give them the No. 1 overall pick
While it is painful to cheer against your favorite team or hope that they lose, fans understand that this is a temporary measure to ensure a brighter future. If the team's young players begin to shine, but they can still find a way to stay near the top of the draft board, that would be an ideal outcome.
Having a bad record is not the only thing that matters for a team's spot in the draft order, however. Strength of schedule is the next tiebreaker, so having a low one matters quite a bit. Practically every game has implications for Las Vegas this weekend.
Below is a list of every Week 12 outcome to cheer for if you are interested in the Raiders' odds of having the No. 1 pick increasing, according to The Athletic's NFL outcome simulator.
- Cleveland Browns defeat Las Vegas Raiders
- Tennessee Titans defeat Seattle Seahawks
- New York Jets defeat Baltimore Ravens
- New York Giants defeat Detroit Lions
- Pittsburgh Steelers defeat Chicago Bears
- Cincinnati Bengals defeat New England Patriots
- Indianapolis Colts defeat Kansas City Chiefs
- Minnesota Vikings defeat Green Bay Packers
- Arizona Cardinals defeat Jacksonville Jaguars
- New Orleans Saints defeat Atlanta Falcons
- Dallas Cowboys defeat Philadelphia Eagles
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeat Los Angeles Rams
- San Francisco 49ers defeat Carolina Panthers
RELATED: Maxx Crosby calls out 2-8 Raiders in a message they need to hear
Unfortunately, the most important result for Las Vegas' chances of landing the top overall pick would be the Browns beating the Raiders. Currently, the Silver and Black have a 10% chance to get the first overall pick. That rises to 18% with a loss. It drops to 2% with a win.
Of the above results, the next most important outcomes are those of the other two and one-win teams. The Titans, Jets, Giants and Saints winning would be critical, as the Raiders would move up to the No. 1 pick in the draft if all four of these teams won, and Las Vegas lost.
Other results, like the Cowboys beating the Eagles or the Vikings beating the Packers, for example, simply have to do with strength of schedule tiebreakers. Although these are not as dire, every little bit counts for the Raiders as the battle for the top pick rages on.
If every Week 12 game went Las Vegas' way, as listed, then the team would have a 36% chance of landing the top pick, up from the 10% chance they have right now. It's unfortunate that this is already a thought before the final quarter of the year, but such is the state of things for the Raiders in 2025.
At least fans have something to cheer for.