The Las Vegas Raiders are just 1-3 to begin the 2025 NFL season, and it is not really a stretch to say that Geno Smith is responsible for two of those losses. The veteran quarterback has thrown three interceptions on two occasions, and his seven total picks currently lead the league.
His shortcomings as a passer have prevented pass-catchers like Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers from having their full impact. Even though Tre Tucker has taken a step forward this year, Dont'e Thornton Jr., Jack Bech and Michael Mayer are yet to breakout, given the state of the offense.
With the defense remaining solid, the offensive line finally clicking, and Ashton Jeanty having his most productive game yet as a result, the Raiders have set up Smith for success. But he needs to do this one thing in Week 5 against the Indianapolis Colts to pull off an upset win.
Raiders can win if Geno Smith just takes care of the ball
It sounds simple, but Smith absolutely cannot turn the ball over. This is a multi-pronged issue, as it not only prevents the offense from scoring but it wrecks every bit of rhythm and trust that he has with his pass-catchers, and it often puts the defense in a tight spot.
Thanks to Smith's three interceptions and Jeanty's fumble last week, the Chicago Bears' offense started five drives in the Raiders' territory, which netted them 16 of their 25 points. If not for the heroics of Maxx Crosby, things would have gotten bad in a hurry.
Indianapolis is a good enough team to capitalize on these mistakes, and things could get ugly, and fast, if Smith is not careful with the ball. It will be tough for him to dial back and not try to push things with Brock Bowers likely out and Kolton Miller not protecting his blindside, but he simply must.
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The Colts' defense is also relatively good at forcing takeaways, as they've already picked off four passes and recovered two fumbles this season. Fortunately, Kenny Moore II, who has one of the interceptions and one of the forced fumbles, will be out due to injury.
But this Indianapolis defense is full of solid talent and playmakers, so Smith cannot put the ball in harm's way, or else they'll make him pay. Turnovers have been an issue for Smith in his NFL career, but he's arguably never played worse football than he has during this three-game losing streak.
It all starts with taking care of the ball, as Smith has metaphorically shot himself and the offense in the foot so many times already that Raider Nation has lost count. If he can just live with checkdowns and fall in love with unordinary plays where he is not forcing the ball into a tight window, it could go a long way in Las Vegas pulling off a surprising victory.