The Las Vegas Raiders went against the grain and ignored bigger needs on their roster when they made tight end Brock Bowers the No. 13 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, to say that the pick has worked out so far is an understatement.
Bowers set records for both receptions and receiving yards by a rookie tight end last year en route to being the top-scoring tight end in full PPR fantasy football last season. In every fantasy scoring format, he ranked no lower than No. 2 at his position.
This season, Bowers will greatly benefit from the Raiders upgrading to Geno Smith at quarterback. But the Raiders are set to have a more run-heavy offense orchestrated by offensive coordinator Chip Kelly this season and more mouths to feed in the passing game.
Prediction for Brock Bowers in 2025 ultimately means nothing for his fantasy status
As a result, some believe that it will be hard for Bowers to replicate the success he had as a rookie. To that end, Sports Illustrated fantasy football analyst Michael Fabiano predicted that Bowers would see a dramatic dip in his production in 2025.
"Brock Bowers won’t catch more than 80 passes in Year 2," Fabiano wrote. "Bowers went off in his rookie year, setting a record for first-year players with 112 receptions. He’s one of just 12 tight ends to hit the 100-catch mark (including Trey McBride last year) since 1966, and the first 10 experienced an average decline of 34 catches the following season. I’m not saying that Bowers will be a dud, but managers should expect him to take a statistical step back."
Fabiano leaned into the average decline in total catches for the 10 tight ends who have caught over 100 passes since 1966, which would put Bowers at 78 receptions in 2025.
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There are several other aspects to factor in as well. According to Pro Football Focus, Bowers had the most uncatchable targets among tight ends last season with 28. He also had the rare combination of an average depth of target but an extremely high rate of deep targets.
Fortunately, over the last three seasons, Smith is PFF's highest-graded deep passer with a 99.9 mark. It's also fair to assume that the Raiders' offense will generate a lot more scoring opportunities this season. Bowers had just one red zone touchdown last year and six total catches on 14 red zone targets.
Fabiano is not shocking fantasy managers with the idea Bowers will have a statistical step back this year. It's just a matter of where his numbers land, and how optimistic or pessimistic fans and fantasy owners want to be. The ceiling to finish as the No. 1 tight end is still there, and a better Raiders offense raises his floor significantly while also reducing the risk of investing an early pick in him.