With the caveat that some felt that the Las Vegas Raiders should have invested in a wide receiver or defensive tackle much earlier, it was hard to find too big a bone to pick with the 2026 NFL Draft class that John Spytek put together for the Silver and Black. This extends well beyond Fernando Mendoza.
Throughout the seven rounds, the Raiders found instant starters, key rotational pieces, high-floor players and potential superstars. In the wake of this perceived great class, expectations have really started to mount around Las Vegas' crop of rookies, perhaps even a bit too high.
And while the forecast changes a bit for these first-year players depending on who is stating their opinion, it is true that numbers never lie. Based on analytics, it won't take much for the Raiders to get value out of their rookie class, and some of the team's youngsters are even set up to be "draft gold."
Las Vegas Raiders' rookie class is stacking up to be quite valuable through analytical lens
Second-rounder Treydan Stukes is already being tasked with quite a bit in Las Vegas and is reportedly responding to it quite well. He seems poised for a starting role in the Raiders' secondary, and it feels like he could be a budding star in practically no time.
According to NFL analytics expert Dave Bartoo, who was a recent guest on Raider Nation Radio's Unnecessary Roughness with Q Myers, it won't take much for Stukes to, analytically speaking, be an incredibly valuable player for the Silver and Black.
“Safety in the top of the second round is awesome. This is awesome value. ... Early second round safeties is literally the best value for safeties," Bartoo said. "And for [Stukes], here are some of his benchmarks we're going in: I expect him to play in every single game, okay? In his peer group, he starts about 10 of them. So I'll over/under for me, if he's got it, if he starts before game number eight and finishes out the season, that's above average, okay? So that's creating more draft value."
Considering Stukes is in line to start right away for Las Vegas, barring injury, the rookie should clear this metric with flying colors. As it pertains to production or statistical output, the equation changes slightly, but it is still entirely attainable for Stukes in year 1.
"Line in the sand for tackles. In his peer group, the number one tackler, 118 tackles at safety, drafted in the last 13 years. But his peer group average is 62. So for me, once he hits about 60, 70 tackles, now he's become above average safety value," Bartoo explained. "Anything more than one interception is awesome. Anything more than one force fumble is awesome. But for me, once he gets into double-digit starts and he starts getting into that 70, 80, once he hits 85 tackles, now he has first-round value. ... That is absolutely draft gold if he hits over 80 tackles in the second round safety.”
That seems like a few big numbers to hit for Stukes as a rookie. But Jeremy Chinn recorded 114 tackles and two forced fumbles last year and Isaiah Pola-Mao notched 92 tackles and two interceptions. Is it really a stretch to say that Stukes can't achieve those goals?
For third-round defensive end Keyron Crawford, the equation isn't as difficult. According to Bartoo, the Auburn product really just needs to be available and a functional part of the edge rusher rotation to be considered a good value pick in the latter half of Day 2.
“The expected number of starts as a third-round edge rusher is barely one start. Not going to start a lot of games. So if he's starting out of the gate, he's either special or you're very thin at edge," Bartoo said. "Now, here's where the numbers are very, very different, though: Number of games played. His peer average is 14. So I think for him, you're going to see him in a lot of second and third-down packages. He won't be a starter at the beginning of the year. He may not be a starter all year, but don't let that be a downer. Guys in his pick range, basically his compensation range, don't get a lot of starts. ... Focus on that games played (number). If he gets 14, 15, 16 games played, stays healthy and he pops, gosh. ... You look at his peer group, he starts getting into three, four sacks, that is tremendous, tremendous value. Any forced fumble? Value. So, for me at this position, it's all about how many games can he go in there and hold his own as he builds himself towards the starting edge rusher. And if it's more than that, let's say that ceiling plays out and this becomes a full time starter and a guy that you can count on for 6, 8, 10 sacks, whoo, that is draft gold in the third round, dude.”
Based on the information we have, it shouldn't be that difficult for Crawford to achieve this. Again, availability is key, but if he can just be a Tyree Wilson-level player, the Raiders have hit a home run in the third round.
It was a similar story for Bartoo when talking about Trey Zuhn III, Las Vegas' other third-round pick. The versatile offensive lineman just needs to be active on game days, and he will exceed his value as a late Day 2 pick during his rookie campaign.
“His peer group, when you get picked in the third round, offensive line, you should be playing a lot of games. His peer average is 15," Bartoo said. " So as long as he's healthy, I think he's in every game. Where he starts, if he's going to be a starter, I anticipate him being a starter somewhere between game four and game seven because his peer group average is 11 starts, right? So 11 minus 17, that's like game six. So for Trey, listen to the buzz, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, depending on your depth of O-line and injuries and so forth. But I think if he's that guy and he can start, I bet you he's going to start somewhere between game five and game seven based on historical numbers.”
Even if Zuhn III doesn't start, he'll still be checking the value box for the Raiders if he can just participate in most of the team's games. Becoming a starter as a rookie would just be icing on the cake, and that doesn't feel too far-fetched for Zuhn III right now, with the guard competition open.
Lastly, Myers spoke with Bartoo about Jermod McCoy. Now, McCoy isn't your typical fourth-rounder, as he is uber-talented but dropped in the draft due to injury concerns. But because he was selected on Day 3, the expectations for him aren't all that lofty, and it'll be easy for him to be valuable.
“As a Raider fan, here's what I'm looking for: If I can steal more than a couple starts out of this guy in a season, that's a good draft value," Bartoo noted. "We're talking 234 different DBs in what round is it? Day three, okay? 234 DBs. The average number of starts you're getting out of this guy is one. One in their rookie year. So now, if this guy turns two starts, awesome. Three, four. If he starts, right? If he's first-round talent and he starts double-digit games and stays healthy, oh, that is just tasty. Seriously, it is just absolutely tasty. That's why in fourth, fifth, sixth round, I do like the reaches on the potential because realistically, nothing's guaranteed at this level, and we don't expect anything out of them. I don't expect him to start. I look at these numbers, I'm like, 'Okay, if McCoy starts one or two games because somebody got hurt, cool. That's a little bit of depth.' If this guy is good enough to be a regular starter in the NFL, that is an absolute steal by the Raiders front office."
Enough said.
Time will tell if the Raiders' rookie class pans out and produces for the Silver and Black. But it is safe to say that, at least through an analytical lens, Las Vegas should easily find tons of value in their first-year players during the 2026 NFL season.
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