At the starting point of another rebuild, it didn't make sense for the Las Vegas Raiders to pay a kicker a lot of money this year. So, Daniel Carlson was allowed to hit free agency unabated, and the more cost-effective pivot was veteran Matt Gay, who had connections to those already in the building.
While he is "just a kicker," the addition of Gay didn't inspire a lot of confidence from Raiders fans. He split the 2025 season between the Washington Commanders and San Francisco 49ers, making just 73.9% of his field goals (17-for-23, albeit with five of the six misses from 50-plus yards out).
Carlson, by comparison, had not made fewer than 81.5 percent of his field goals since his first full season as the Raiders' kicker in 2019. But the issue with him was that he never had a big leg and his accuracy was dwindling over the years.
The Raiders added Kansei Matsuzawa, "The Tokyo Toe", as an undrafted rookie to compete with Gay this offseason. But he proved to not be much competition during training camp and preseason games, and Gay comfortably won the job.
Through two games this season, Gay is a perfect 6-for-6 on extra points and 3-for-3 on field goals. In Week 2 against the Los Angeles Chargers, he made a career-long 59-yard field goal. It's obviously very early, but so far, so good when it comes to the Raiders' decision to let Carlson go and sign Gay.
Matt Gay has proven the Raiders' kicker pivot right (so far)
Based on EPA (Expected Points Added) per kick through Week 2 (and yes, they measure EPA for kickers too), Gay is No. 6 among his peers at +0.38. Carlson, who eventually landed with the New Orleans Saints and is 4-for-4 on extra points and 4-for-5 on field goals thus far, is No. 13 at +0.20.
NFL Kicker Rankings through Week 2 pic.twitter.com/b4OmXTTvoH
— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) September 23, 2026
Of course, being the Saints' kicker means that Carlson will be on the opposing sideline Sunday when the Raiders pay a visit to New Orleans. It's hard to know if he carries ill will to create a "revenge game" angle, since he likely understood the Raiders' circumstances and decision to let him leave.
But he wouldn't be human if he didn't have some extra motivation against his former team.
On the other hand, Gay can further prove the Raiders' offseason kicker decision right by continuing his perfect start to the season and/or coming through with a clutch kick, if needed. If Carlson misses a kick or two, particularly in a big spot, that would further fortify the correctness of the pivot.
When it came down to it, setting cost aside, the Raiders didn't think Carlson was good enough anymore. They thought Gay was good enough, despite last season's evidence that said otherwise, and the decision looks fine so far.
It may turn bad for Gay at some point this season, but it just can't be this week, with Carlson on the other team, ready to make the Raiders look bad for letting him leave.
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