There's so much anticipation over when Las Vegas Raiders rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza might make his first start that we do a weekly "Mendoza Meter" to guage how close it is to happening. So far, on the scale of "1" (don't hold your breath) to "10" (he's starting next week), the meter has not been above a 5.
Mendoza making his NFL regular season debut in Week 5 against the New England Patriots did not move the "Mendoza Meter" very much. As much as Kirk Cousins is the driver for when Mendoza will get his first start, the opponent for the Raiders' next game has to be taken into consideration too.
That said, somewhere between now and the Week 13 game against the Cleveland Browns feels like when Mendoza will make his first start. Yes, that's a broad timeframe, but it doesn't make much sense to try to to pinpoint an exact week right now. We simply need more to happen, in terms of Cousins' performance/health and the team's win-loss record.
NFL analyst Ben Solak isn’t onboard with that philosophy. Among his "Seven things I think" heading into Week 6, ESPN's Solak offered a thought about the Raiders' quarterback situation.
"I think ... Kirk Cousins will get one more start before Fernando Mendoza time"
New Fernando Mendoza prediction accelerates things to Raiders' potential new reality
Solak generally wonders if opposing defensive coordinators will try to replicate what Patriots' defensive Zak Kuhr did in Week 5. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, New England blitzed Cousins on 41.2 percent of his first half dropbacks, which yielded a 53 percent pressure rate and two sacks.
While Mendoza is not what anyone would call fleet of foot, he has shown functional mobility and he'd automatically be better than the 38-year old Cousins in that area.
"To quickly pivot from Cousins to Mendoza might feel like an early abandonment of a well-laid developmental plan", Solak wrote. "But I would argue that the pivot is justified."
Solak caveated his thought pretty hard, with an eye on the Raiders' Week 7 opponent, before wondering something Raider Nation might be wondering too.
"I won't be too upset if they keep riding the Cousins train. Like I said, the lack of mobility is a problem but not one that has totally hamstrung an otherwise solid passing attack. The Raiders could defensibly stick with Cousins for another month or two and still prioritize Mendoza's development over anything else. After all, benching Cousins after Week 6 would give Mendoza to the Rams and (presumably) Myles Garrett in Week 7 -- that's a stiff ask."
"But it's hard to win those first three games ... then lose two ... and not wonder if the team is closer to contention than expected. And then not wonder whether Mendoza's timeline should be accelerated to match."
The Raiders being closer to contention than expected at any point this season and Mendoza's timeline to start have been seen as separate things. As in, as long as Cousins was healthy, once any idea of playoff contention has evaporated, the door would be fully open for Mendoza to step in.
Solak has a different thought though, suggesting Mendoza can elevate Klint Kubiak's offense in ways Cousins simply can't. It's hard to see the switch happening between Week 6 against the Buffalo Bills and Week 7 against the Los Angeles Rams, but there's a never-say-never element that can't be ignored.
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